Well, so much for that Survivor Pool.
I (and many other people) felt the Texans were a very solid home favorite over the Jaguars, but not only did they lose, they go DOMINATED. Most people were shocked to see the Jaguars defense ranked so high on fantasy rankings, but they showed why on Sunday. I’m still not sold that Blake Bortles will have a great year, but with the way their defense looked, expect the Jaguars to be much better than the 2-14 I originally predicted.
Besides the Survivor debacle, I did pretty good in Week 1, going 11-4 straight up, and 7-7-1 against the spread. I’ll take it, as that would mean last week would be one giant push if I bet the same amount of money for every single game against the spread. Here’s a quick look at my Week 1 picks (team winning in red, spread winner in red).
Chiefs (+9) at Patriots
Jets at Bills (-9)
Ravens at Bengals (-3)
Steelers (-8.5) at Browns
Cardinals at Lions (+2)
Jaguars at Texans (-5)
Raiders (+2.5) at Titans
Eagles at Redskins (+1)
Colts (+3.5) at Rams
Seahawks at Packers (-3)
49ers at Panthers (-5.5)
Giants at Cowboys (-4)
Saints at Vikings (-3.5)
Chargers at Broncos (-3.5)
2017 Straight Up: 11-4, 2017 vs. Spread: 7-7-1
Time for Week 2.
Texans (+6.5) at Bengals
- Both of these teams looked awful as home favorites in Week 1. The Texans will be sending out rookie DeShaun Watson, who I’m very excited to see play. Since 2011, the Texans are 5-1 against the Bengals, including playoffs. After seeing both teams struggle last week, past history and the excitement of their new QB has me not only taking the Texans to cover, but to pull off the upset in Cincinnati as well.
Browns (+8) at Ravens
- Both teams looked impressive in Week 1, the Ravens in a winning effort and the Browns in a close losing effort against the Steelers. The Ravens are clearly the better team here, and should have no problem winning at home. But I like the fight in this new Browns team, and I see them keeping it close enough to cover.
Bills (+7.5) at Panthers
- The Panthers and Bills both looked solid in Week 1, albeit Buffalo was taking on the Jets. I picked the Panthers to have a bounce back year, so I’m taking them at home in this one over the Bills. However, new Bills coach Sean McDermott is returning to his old stomping grounds in Carolina, so expect the Bills to play hard and and cover in a losing effort.
Cardinals (-7) at Colts
- The Cardinals first week got a lot worse when they found out star RB David Johnson will miss most if not all of the season after getting wrist surgery. However, that bad week may still not have been as bad as the Colts after losing 46-9 to the Rams. The Colts look awful without Andrew Luck, so give me the shorthanded Cardinals winning and covering in Indy.
Titans (-2.5) at Jaguars
- The Jaguars are coming into this one fired up after their very impressive Week 1 win in Houston. However, the Titans are my pick to win the AFC South this year, and I’m not going to downgrade them after losing to the team I picked to win the AFC this year. The Titans will bounce back and win and and cover in Jacksonville.
Eagles at Chiefs (-5.5)
- The former coach battles continue Sunday as Andy Reid goes up against his former team, and Doug Pederson goes up against his. Both teams looked great in Week 1, but you can’t ignore what the Chiefs pulled off last Thursday night. Look for Kareem Hunt to go off again as the Chiefs win this one easily.
Patriots (-6.5) at Saints
- When I made my 2017 picks, I had the Saints pulling off the upset after the Patriots won on opening night. However, no chance the Pats fall to 0-2. New England has previously recovered well from a rough loss against Kansas City, so look for them to bounce back in New Orleans.
Vikings (+5.5) at Steelers
- This could be one of the better matchups of the Week, as the Vikings stellar defense goes up against the Steelers stellar offense. The Vikings will hang on enough to cover, but expect the Steelers to take the victory in their home opener.
Bears (+7) at Buccaneers
- After watching them all summer on Hard Knocks, the Bucs opener is finally here. Tampa Bay is a better team and crushed the Bears at home last year, so expect them to get the win. But I like the way Tarik Cohen and the Bears looked in Week 1 against the Falcons, so I’m taking them covering in a losing effort.
Dolphins at Chargers (-4)
- Monday night was a typical Chargers game from 2016 as they would hang around but could not get it done in close games. However, I liked what I saw from them in Denver, so give me them winning and covering in their return to LA against a Dolphins team that I think will struggle this year.
Jets at Raiders (-14)
- The Week 1 Raiders game could not go more as I predicted, as they won easily as underdogs in Tennessee. Obviously, I’m picking them to win this one, but I think they will cover too. The Black Hole knows they don’t have much Raider football left in Oakland, so the place will be bananas watching this awesome Raiders team play, and they will crush the Jets.
Redskins (+2.5) at Rams
- 31 year-old Sean McVay and his Rams looked extremely impressive in Week 1, and now McVay is taking on his former Redskins team. However, the Redskins will be a significantly tougher test than the Colts were, and the Rams are not good enough yet to be a 2-0 team. Give me the Redskins pulling off the “upset” in LA.
49ers at Seahawks (-14)
- The Seahawks offense did not look very good last week, but the 49ers looked much worse. The Niners only put up 3 points at home against Carolina’s defense, so don’t be shocked if they’re held to the same in Seattle against their defense. Russell Wilson will find his groove in this one and the Seahawks will win easily.
Cowboys (-2.5) at Broncos
- The Cowboys will be facing a very similar test this week against the Broncos as they did against the Giants. The Broncos have a great defense and an offense that can be limited at times. The Giants are much more familiar with the Cowboys on both sides, and they still didn’t come close to winning. I like the Cowboys to continue their groove on both sides of the ball and win and cover in Denver.
Packers at Falcons (-2.5)
- Expect this game to be much more like the matchup these two teams had in the regular season last year, and not like the one in the playoffs. Both of these offenses will explode in the brand new Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and I think the Falcons will win a thriller by one score, enough to cover.
Lions (+3.5) at Giants
- This Giants chances in this one rely on Odell Beckham’s Jr.’s health. If he is good to go, I think the Giants win and cover. However, I don’t think this is the case, and if the Giants push him to play, he may not be as explosive. If this is the scenario, I think Stafford and Lions do enough on both sides of the ball to win and cover.
Survivor Pick of the Week
Be back next week for Week 3. The NFL is back in full swing and I’m loving it.