Over two-thirds of my survivor pool has already been eliminated, and this week was a killer. The 3rd, 4th, and 5th most common selections in Week 3 were the Steelers, Dolphins, and Broncos, respectively, and they all went down. The two teams most commonly selected? The Patriots and Packers, who both trailed at home with under a minute to go.
The bad luck for those who were survivors up to Week 3 reflected my picks from last week as well, as I had my worst week to date. I went 9-7 straight up, and 7-9 against the spread to move me back to even in terms of the spread this year. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (winning team in red, spread winner in red):
Rams (-2.5) at 49ers
Ravens (-3.5) at Jaguars
Broncos (-3) at Bills
Saints at Panthers (-5.5)
Steelers (-7.5) at Bears
Falcons at Lions (+3)
Browns at Colts (+1)
Buccaneers at Vikings (EVEN)
Texans (+13.5) at Patriots
Dolphins at Jets (+6)
Giants at Eagles (-6)
Seahawks at Titans (-2.5)
Bengals at Packers (-9)
Chiefs (-3) at Chargers
Raiders (-3) at Redskins
Cowboys (-3) at Cardinals
2017 Straight Up: 34-13, 2017 vs. Spread: 23-23-1
Onto Week 4.
Bears at Packers (-7)
- The Packers played down to the lowly Bengals at home last week, so don’t be shocked if their arch rivals come in and give them a good game. But despite two impressive home performances, the Bears looked like a completely different team in their lone road game in Tampa. I’ll take the Packers easily getting the win at Lambeau.
Saints at Dolphins (+3) (London)
- This is a tough one to pick, as many people think the Dolphins are better, but the Saints are coming off a great win while the Dolphins are coming off a brutal loss. The NFL has seen a lot of parity so far, and when you throw London in, you never know what to expect. I’ll take the “home” team Dolphins picking up the victory.
Rams at Cowboys (-6.5)
- The Rams are much improved this year, so I’m not expecting a typical Rams blowout loss on the road. However, the Cowboys have faced very tough defenses to start the year, with two of those games coming on the road. I’m expecting the Cowboys to win easily as they will be facing their weakest opponent of the season to date at home.
Bills at Falcons (-8)
- The Bills just came off of a great win at home, but you know what they say. No one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills! The Falcons looked great in their lone home game and the Bills only put up 3 points in Carolina, so I’m picking the Falcons to easily win and cover at home.
Bengals at Browns (+3)
- The Bengals looked much better last week than the previous two, but it’s got to hurt coming that close in a place as hard to win as Green Bay and leaving with a loss. The Browns have played two close games, including one against the Steelers, so I like them to get the upset victory at home.
Lions at Vikings
Note: The spread has not been released yet (likely due to the uncertainty around Sam Bradford) so I’ll treat it as if the spread is even.
- Discounting the Vikings loss in Pittsburgh without Bradford, both teams have looked great in all of their games this season. The Lions are coming off an extremely tough loss, and the Vikings have been dominant at home, so I’m taking Minnesota in this one.
Panthers (+9) at Patriots
- Both of these teams have had strange starts to the season. Tom Brady has been great, but the Patriots look less dominant, and the Panthers had looked improved through two weeks, but then got shelled at home by the Saints. Give me Brady and the Pats at home, but with New England looking less dominant, I think the Panthers will beat the spread.
Jaguars (-3.5) at Jets
- The Jaguars have two blowout wins away from Jacksonville, and one blowout loss in Jacksonville. The Jets are coming off an impressive team win against the Dolphins, but I think the Jags keep up their away from home trend and win and cover in New York.
Steelers at Ravens (+3)
- The Ravens had two very impressive wins to start the year, then absolutely dropped an egg last week in London. I’ll throw that one out the door and note that the Ravens always play great games with the Steelers. The Ravens have been victorious each of the last four times the Steelers came to Baltimore, so I like the trend to continue and for the Ravens to get the upset win.
Titans at Texans (+1.5)
- The Texans are coming home much stronger than the team they sent out at home in Week 1. This team nearly pulled off a stunner in New England, so I’m taking DeShaun Watson and the Texans to get the “upset” victory at home in a great game against the Titans.
49ers (+7) at Cardinals
- The Cardinals have talent for sure, but this team just has not been able to put it together for all four quarters in any of their three games. The Niners are coming off their best performance in a home loss to the Rams. Arizona is a better team so I’m for sure picking them to win at home, but San Francisco will keep it close enough to cover.
Eagles at Chargers (+1.5)
- The Eagles are definitely a better team than the Chargers, but neither team has been very predictable over the past few seasons. Both have had their handful of great wins, yet heartbreaking losses. The Chargers have looked much better than 0-3, so I think they will finally get a victory this week at home.
Giants (+3) at Buccaneers
- Both of these teams will be intriguing to watch this weekend as their Week 3 performances were much different than that of Week 2. The Giants looked much better last week despite the brutal way in which the game ended. This Giants team has way too much talent to start 0-4, so I think they will get the upset win on the road over this young Bucs team.
Raiders at Broncos (-2.5)
- After last week, it’s clear that both of these teams will be much more dominant at home this season than on the road. I expect a great game on Sunday between these division rivals, but I think the home Broncos will get the win and cover.
Colts (+13) at Seahawks
- Let it be noted that this may be one of the least intriguing Sunday night matchups of all time. The Seahawks offense looked much better in Tennessee, so that is definitely a good look for Seattle going forward. They should definitely win at home over this lowly Colts team, but I think Jacoby Brissett and Co. will keep it within two touchdowns.
Redskins (+7) at Chiefs
- The R-words and the C-words are both coming off of 2 TD+ victories in Week 3. This should be a very exciting game, and I think the Chiefs great start to the season will continue as they will get the victory at home, but the Redskins will keep it within one score and cover.
See you all for Week 5. Will the Giants be in the win column by then?