Weeks like Week 6 make me wonder why I even waste my time writing these blogs every week…
… because after last week, it’s clear that you don’t know what’s coming on any given Sunday this season.
With the amount of upsets that took place last week, I’m grateful that I was busy and I didn’t place action on any of these games. Underdogs went 9-5… STRAIGHT UP. That’s right, 9 underdogs not only covered their spreads, but won the game as well. 7 of these 9 underdogs were also road teams. Also, of the 5 favorites to win, only 3 of them covered. That means favorites were 5-9 straight up, and an abysmal 3-11 against the spread.
As you can imagine… I did not do too hot. But then again, did anyone? Everywhere I looked after the game, expert’s predictions were wrong. I went 5-9, both straight up and against the spread. In all 14 games, I was either right about the spread and cover, or wrong about both, no 1-1. I’ve decided I will now look back on my picks from the week before and make comments on where I went wrong, or simply, why the NFL was unpredictable last week. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (winning team in red, spread winner in red):
Eagles at Panthers (-3.5)
- Eagles 28, Panthers 23- Maybe the Eagles are the team I thought the Panthers would be this year? Not writing off the Panthers because of a close loss to a good team. But the Eagles could be for real this year, and I don’t like the look of that. The Cowboys will still see them twice late in the year (I’ll be in Dallas Nov. 19), so it should be an exciting division race if the Cowboys can edge out wins in these high scoring games.
Dolphins at Falcons (-11.5)
- Dolphins 20, Falcons 17- Don’t even get me started, because this one makes no sense. The Falcons have won a couple of games this year that they could have easily lost, but by no means is it panic time in Atlanta. As for the Dolphins, they came in as arguably one of the worst 2-2 teams of all time. They only scored 6 against the Jets, got shutout by the Saints, yes the Saints, defense, and hardly edged out wins against Young Hoe Koo and Matt Cassel. The Falcons also were up 17-0, so I think there is only one explanation here: the 2017 NFL season (or as PFT said, the Dolphins paid tribute to Chris Foerster by having a nose for the goal line).
Packers (-3) at Vikings
- Vikings 23, Packers 10– Two words. Aaron. Rodgers. I feel bad for those who bet Packers, but then again, not really because if they picked them the week before as well, then they ruined my Sunday. The Packers are in for a long and frustrating 2017 season.
Lions (+5) at Saints
- Saints 52, Lions 38- Was this the trap I said it could be? I’ll say no, I don’t want to make excuses. This game was an absolute shootout, and the Lions D did their best impression of the Saints D to let New Orleans cover easily.
Patriots at Jets (+9.5)
49ers (+10) at Redskins
Bears at Ravens (-6.5)
- Bears 27, Ravens 24 F/OT- The Ravens are clearly not reliable this year, especially since they got off to a 2-0 start. The Bears have looked awful on the road this year, but finally edged one out thanks to Jordan Howard.
Browns at Texans (-9.5)
Buccaneers (-2.5) at Cardinals
- Cardinals 38, Buccaneers 33- Okay, maybe AP is here to come to the rescue. While their once stellar defense looked horrible in the 4th quarter, the Cardinals offense finally looked like what I thought they could be capable of coming into the year. One game is not enough to say what AP is going to bring, but the Cardinals are only a game out of first, and if they can keep this up, they are a real threat in the NFC West.
Rams (+2.5) at Jaguars
Steelers at Chiefs (-4.5)
- Steelers 19, Chiefs 13- Once again, talk about a tail of two weeks. The Steelers go from getting crushed at home by the Jaguars to beating the NFL’s last unbeaten team on the road. This Chiefs have been the best team in the AFC this year, but the Steelers proved that come late in the season, they will still be a tough out.
Chargers at Raiders
- Chargers 17, Raiders 16-This game had not had a spread yet, so I took the Raiders as if they were even (changes to that coming, keep reading). Despite Derek Carr playing, it’s clear he is not 100 percent healthy yet. There’s a clear difference in a Raiders team with a healthy Carr vs. one without him. The Chargers continue to look like last years Chargers, losing heart breakers and getting gritty wins on the road.
Giants at Broncos (-11.5)
- Giants 23, Broncos 10-You thought the Falcons loss made no sense? Well, this was 10x worse. The Giants came in 0-5, with minimal offensive damage (especially in the run game) done this year. They then lose their top three receivers. Now they are playing in one of the toughest road venues against a defense that held last year’s rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott to 8 yards. Everything pointed towards a Broncos win, even if it was low scoring. And quite frankly, I don’t think there is any explanation.
Colts at Titans
Enough for last weeks losses, time for an unpredictable Week 7.
Note: While there are no games like this in Week 7, for games whose spreads have not been released yet, I will no longer be making this picks in this blog, and instead will closer to gametime and mention whether I won or lost the following week. Don’t worry, I ain’t a liar.
Buccaneers at Bills (-1)
- It will be interesting to see if the Bills, a historically disappointing team, look as strong as they did before their bye week came up. The Bucs have looked awful on the road this year (besides last week’s 4th quarter), and Jameis may not be 100 percent, so I think the Bills come out looking like they did before their bye week and beat the Bucs at home.
Panthers (-3) at Bears
- While the Panthers have had their ups and downs en route to their 4-2 record, they are 3-0 away from Carolina. At the same time, the Bears have been a very competitive team at home this year. I think this spread is perfect, and if I had to predict score, I would say Panthers by 3 as well. But I gotta choose one, so I’ll take the Panthers to cover in their close victory.
Titans at Browns (+6)
- Even though it only lasted a game and a half, there was such a sense of relief when Tony Romo returned in 2015 and took over for Matt Cassel. Therefore, I know how Titans fans are feeling right now. The Titans look back on track and I think they will win, but the Browns need a home win, and a non-dominant AFC team is the perfect one to come in and let the Browns cover, but still beat Cleveland in the end.
Saints (+4) at Packers
- They may not be this bad, but a good equivalent of what this Packers team could look is what the Raiders have looked like without Derek Carr. The Saints offense has exploded over their last three games, so I expect them to go in and cover against a banged up Packers team.
Jaguars (-3.5) at Colts
- The odd week Jags are back! The even week Jaguars played like we all knew they would, but they are back for Week 7 to show us what they are capable of. The Jaguars D and Leonard Fournette will take over again, and the Jags will win and cover in Indy.
Cardinals at Rams (-3.5) (London)
- The game is a hard one to pick, because as great as the Cardinals looked last week, we all know trends like these mean nothing this season. That being said, I think Peterson and the Cardinals come back down to Earth, and the Rams offensive explodes on the Cardinals defense to get the win and cover in London.
Jets at Dolphins (-3)
- The Jets have shown over the past four weeks that they are better than bad. That being said, a few losses in a row could send them on a trend that most projected them to be on this year. I think the Dolphins build off of their impressive win in Atlanta, and they win a close, low scoring game in Miami, but enough to cover.
Ravens at Vikings (-5.5)
- What a mess the Ravens have been since starting the season 2-0. The Vikings have also been playing some pretty good football lately, even with Case Keenum at QB. With the Vikings playing at home in a battle of the Purple People Eaters, I think both of these trends continue, and the Vikings easily win at home. (Note: Watch the video. Easily one of the greatest games I have ever watched.)
Cowboys at 49ers (+6)
- You have to feel for these Niners. Coming into the year projected to be one of the worst teams in the league, the standings reflect that. But they have now lost their last five by 3, 2, 3, 3, and 2, respectively. Combine that with their historic rivalry against the Cowboys, and the close game they played last year, I like them to cover. However, I definitely think the Cowboys will win. The Boys never looked back last year after going down 14-0 in Week 4 in SF, so I’m hoping for the same this season.
“How bout the kid, Dak Prescott?”
Bengals (+5.5) at Steelers
- Another loss like one to the Jaguars against the Chiefs could have really put a damper on the Steelers season. Their defense is clearly improved this season. I like them to win, but the Bengals played three straight great games before their bye week, so I think they will cover in this division rivalry game.
Broncos at Chargers (-1)
- With the way the NFL season has gone, I’m gonna consider the Broncos game last week a fluke. That being said, these Chargers look so much like last year’s Chargers, a team who started 0-4 and then hit their peak in the middle of the season. The Chargers have won two in a row on the road, so I think they come back home and win over a Broncos team that struggles on the road.
Seahawks (-4.5) at Giants
- Don’t let the Giants fool you after last weeks performance. They are still missing so many weapons that gave them chances to win in a few of their games. The Seahawks are coming off their bye, looking to turn their season around to be the more dominant team they are capable of. The Seahawks have had great success at MetLife, including winning Super Bowl XLVIII, and I think they will win and cover on the road.
Falcons (+3) at Patriots
- Coming into the season, I had the Falcons winning this game, as they had something to prove after dominating the NFL’s best team for 3 quarters in last years Super Bowl. While the Falcons have lost two in a row, the Patriots are very close to being 0-3 at home this season. I think this trend continues, and the Falcons gets revenge in Foxborough.
Redskins (+5) at Eagles
- The Redskins have had an impressive start to the season, with their only bad performance coming in Week 1 at home to the Eagles. Expect a Redskins team much more ready to play Philly this time. That being said, the Eagles looked great last week, and got an extra few days of rest. The Redskins will keep this one close and cover, but the Eagles will pull it out on Monday night.
That’s all for Week 7, come back for Week 8 when every game went as predicted, of course. Will the Falcons get their revenge?