Week 11 will be the first time I attend an NFL game this season, and to say I’m hyped is an understatement.
This Sunday will be my second lifetime trip to Jerry World, but my first for a game. It’s unfortunate I won’t be seeing a certain Cowboys’ star on offense and defense, and potentially their best offensive lineman as well, but I think it will be a great game and overall an amazing weekend.
Back to the betting, Week 10 was a down week after three consecutive solid ones. Not to use this as a scapegoat, but the spreads were tough last week, and I did not think last week would be as strong as the previous three. I went 8-6 straight up, and 5-9 against the spread. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (winning team in red, spread winner in red):
Seahawks (-6.5) at Cardinals
- Seahawks 22, Cardinals 16- Just missed on this one. While writing this article last week, I first chose Seahawks against the spread, then switched to Cardinals, then ultimately made the switch back. Vegas nailed this one.
Saints at Bills (+3)
- Saints 47, Bills 10- Most weeks I think the Saints are going to come back down to Earth, but I’ve given up on that theory. The Bills can’t have nice things, and while they still hold a Wild Card spot, they are inexplicably benching Tyrod Taylor for 5th round rookie Nathan Peterman.
Packers (+5.5) at Bears
- Packers 23, Bears 16- The Bears came off the bye and regressed a little, while the Packers finally put together a winning performance under Brett Hundley. This game could have been tied at 23, however, if John Fox had not challenged a near TD, which resulted in a touch back and Green Bay ball.
Browns at Lions (-12)
Steelers at Colts (+10)
Chargers at Jaguars (-3.5)
- Jaguars 20, Chargers 17 (OT)- Finally, a victory for the even week Jacksonville Jaguars. Just missed on the cover as well, and they could have covered had AJ Bouye not been knocked out at the 2 on his interception which set up the game winning field goal.
Jets (-2.5) at Buccaneers
- Buccaneers 15, Jets 10- I watched the majority of this game, and it really sucked. Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick’s back to back interceptions was one of the greatest moments I have ever witnessed though.
Bengals at Titans (-4.5)
- Titans 24, Bengals 20- Another close win at home for the Titans, and another missed cover by half a point. After three straight wins against the basement of the AFC North, they have a huge test Thursday night in Pittsburgh.
Vikings at Redskins (+1.5)
- Vikings 38, Redskins 30- This game was not as much about the Redskins disappointing, but rather the Vikings impressing. Minnesota is quietly 7-2, and the welcome the 7-2 Rams into Minneapolis this weekend.
Texans at Rams (-11.5)
Giants (-2.5) at 49ers
- 49ers 31, Giants 21- Just when the disaster of the New York Giants season could not get any worse, they hand the 0-9ers their first win. The Giants have now been outscored by 113 points since this was taken.
Cowboys (+3) at Falcons
- Falcons 27, Cowboys 7- This was one of the most frustrating games I have ever watched. Chaz Green, who was replacing Tyron Smith, had no answer for Adrian Clayborn, and the coaches made no changes. Once Sean Lee went out, the Cowboys defense faltered in the second half the same way they did against the Rams and Packers. Ezekiel Elliott was not the missing piece in this game. If I hear one more person put this game on Dak in any way I’m gonna lose my fucking mind. Thankfully I have my mind on going to the game this weekend.
Patriots (-7.5) at Broncos
Dolphins (+9) at Panthers
- Panthers 45, Dolphins 21- The Panthers are so unpredictable, making them a very tough team to bet for or against. If they can play like this more consistently, they will be without a doubt a legit threat in the NFC playoffs.
2017 Straight-Up: 93-53, 2017 Vs. Spread: 70-72-4
Time for a big weekend of football.
Titans at Steelers (-7)
- The Titans have now won 3 in a row, but all by 4 points or less against the basement of the AFC North. Now facing the team in first place on the road, things won’t be as easy. The Steelers play down to a lot of opponents, but I think they pull away in the 4th quarter in this one to win and cover on Thursday night.
Lions (-3) at Bears
- I don’t want to consider this a lock, because anything can happen in an NFC North game, especially if it does not involve Aaron Rodgers. But with the Bears having a down week after their bye against a Packers team which the Lions just handled easily on the road, I think the Lions definitely win and cover in Chicago.
Ravens (-2) at Packers
- Despite the fact that the Packers got their first win under Brett Hundley last week, I don’t think they have enough to stay in the playoff hunt. The Ravens also looked much better in their two games prior to their bye. I see this game going like when the Ravens traveled to Oakland to play the Raiders without Derek Carr, meaning they will win and cover in Green Bay.
Jaguars (-7.5) at Browns
- The even week Jags didn’t make it easy, but found a way to win, and now the odd week Jags are back and ready to roll. I see their defense absolutely dominating the young Browns offense on the road, just like they did to the Colts, and they will easily win and cover.
Cardinals (-1) at Texans
- The Texans defense has not lived up to its past this year, and their offense is hopeless without DeShaun Watson at QB. The Cardinals are very banged up too, but have managed to pull off some wins. The Texans have not beaten anyone this year with Tom Savage under center, and I like the trend to continue this weekend.
Rams (+2) at Vikings
- This is as good as it gets in Week 11, with two 7-2 teams going head to head. The Vikings are at home, but I like the Rams in this one because I think they have been a much more impressive 7-2 than the Vikings. Also, I think Jared Goff goes in and beats Case Keenum, the guy who he replaced as Rams QB last season.
Redskins at Saints (-7.5)
- The Saints turnaround from their 0-2 start is one of the best, yet most underrated stories in the NFL this season. Their last two wins have been absolute blowouts from start to finish. The Redskins are good enough to cover in this one, but I think the Saints keep flying high and win and cover in a high scoring affair.
Chiefs (-10.5) at Giants
- The Chiefs have lost 3 of 4 after starting 5-0. However, this stat means nothing when going up against the Giants. Throw in the fact that Andy Reid teams are 16-2 following their bye week, the Chiefs will undoubtedly win this one, and they should easily cover as well.
Buccaneers at Dolphins (-1)
- This was supposed to be an exciting Week 1 matchup, but instead is a terrible Week 11 matchup. The Dolphins were able to put up 21 points against the strong Panthers defense, while the Bucs could hardly scrap out 15 against the Jets at home. I think the Dolphins win a close, low scoring game in this one.
Bills at Chargers (-4)
- The 2017 Chargers have followed a very similar path as their 2016 selves, as they have had some great wins, and also gut wrenching losses. This week will be one of those wins. The Bills have gotten crushed two weeks in a row, and are now starting 5th round rookie Nathan Peterman at QB for no apparent reason. I like the Chargers to easily win and cover this weekend.
Bengals (+2.5) at Broncos
- I and everyone else has lost all faith in the Broncos, and they somehow seem to get worse every week. The Bengals have not had a great season either, but their 6 losses have been by a combined 63 points, versus the Broncos who have lost their 6 by more than double that at a combined 117 points. I think the Bengals have no problem going into Denver and scoring the “upset”.
Patriots (-6.5) at Raiders (Mexico)
- If the Raiders did not give up this home game, I think this would be a great game. However, I love the Patriots in this matchup on neutral turf. The Patriots have been rolling of late and I think they easily handle the Raiders, winning and covering in Mexico City.
Eagles at Cowboys (+3.5)
- I don’t care what the situation is, do you think I’m picking against the Cowboys when I’ll be in attendance? In this same matchup last year, the Cowboys had won 5 in a row heading into this Sunday Night matchup, and they were coming off their bye. They came out very slow, and needed a 4th quarter comeback just to force OT, where they won. The Eagles have won 7 in a row. Could the bye slow them down? I think the Cowboys know they have to win this one. Hopefully Tyron Smith will be back, and hopefully this defense is better as they know Sean Lee won’t be playing, which they did not know last week, and hopefully will have a chip on their shoulder after the criticism they have received all week. Dak will lead the Cowboys to a close victory. Cry, Eagles, cry.
Falcons at Seahawks (-3)
- The Falcons looked good last week, but the Seahawks will be much tougher than the short handed Cowboys. The Seahawks have not looked great the last two weeks, but they are dominant in prime time games at home. I think they avenge last year’s playoff loss to the Falcons, and win a close one at home, but enough to cover.
That’s it for Week 11, be back next week. Will the Eagles continue to fly, or will Dak Prescott continue to defy all odds as quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys?