McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 12

Last week was a solid week for me, but even more than ever, there was only one game I really cared about…

Image result for jay ajayi eagles vs cowboys

…and I don’t think it could have gone any worse. The Dallas experience was awesome, and the first half was okay, but it only went downhill from there. More on that game in a bit.

Week 11 was overall a solid week though, as I went 9-5 straight up, and 7-6-1 against the spread. It was not a boring week in the NFL, but nothing too crazy or unpredictable happened. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (winning team in red, spread winner in red):

Titans at Steelers (-7)

Lions (-3) at Bears

  • Lions 27, Bears 24- Pushed in this one. Looks like Vegas saw the highlights before it even happened

Ravens (-2) at Packers

Jaguars (-7.5) at Browns

Cardinals (-1) at Texans

  • Texans 31, Cardinals 21- The Texans offense was finally able to find success under Tom Savage similar to that under DeShaun Watson. This spread changed once it was announced that Blaine Gabbert would be starting for Arizona, but I kept my pick, unlike another game in which the spread changed (keep reading).

Rams (+2) at Vikings

  • Vikings 24, Rams 7- This game was yet another statement by the Vikings. After the Rams scored on their first drive, Minnesota did not let that happen again. Case Keenum is also earning respect as a starting QB, and it looks like the Vikes will roll with the hot hand over the returned Teddy Bridgewater.

Redskins at Saints (-7.5)

  • Saints 34, Redskins 31 (OT)- A loss like that was a great indicator of what the Redskins are. Good, but not good enough. The Saints magic continued with an epic comeback late in the game, before putting it away in overtime.

Chiefs (-10.5) at Giants

  • Giants 12, Chiefs 9 (OT)- Barn burner in the Meadowlands! The Giants defense finally played like it was capable of coming into the season, and the Chiefs major struggles continue. Quite a crazy turnaround for the G-Men after getting dominated by the winless Niners.

Buccaneers at Dolphins (-1)

  • Buccaneers 30, Dolphins 20- If you just saw the final score, you’d think this was a bad pick. But not only did the Bucs barely edge it out late, but yet another terrible beat happened when the over was hit on the last play of the game.

Bills at Chargers (-4)

Bengals (+2.5) at Broncos

Patriots (-6.5) at Raiders (Mexico)

Eagles at Cowboys (+3.5)

  • Eagles 37, Cowboys 9- What went wrong? Well, everything. After allowing on TD on the Eagles first drive, the Cowboys defense dominated the rest of the half to lead 9-7 at the break. However, that’s where this defense breaks down. When Sean Lee is out, the Cowboys have outscored opponents 61-46 in the first half, but have been outscored 88-16 in the second half. Every team deals with injuries, but Sean Lee is making his case as being the most valuable defensive player in the NFL, especially in the second half. Dak probably had his worst game as a pro, but no one was open all night. People are criticizing him and saying how Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson have dealt with offensive line injuries. Well guess what? All three of those guys are Super Bowl champions, veterans, and 2 of the 3 are regarded as the top two QBs in the league. Dak has had a great career so far, and it’s not fair that he’s being criticized for playing poorly in his first situation with a shorthanded offense. We all know what the Cowboys can be at full strength, so if they want to make the playoffs, they will have to grind out some wins before Zeke and Sean Lee return.

Falcons (-1) at Seahawks

Note: This spread changed by 4 points after Kam Chancellor was announced out. Since this spread changed by so many points, and it was the last game of the week, I adjusted the spread and changed my pick before the game. 

Thanksgiving football is here.

Image result for nfl thanksgiving gif

Vikings (-3) at Lions

  • The Vikings have won 6 in a row since they lost to the Lions in Week 4, and I think they keep that train rolling. The Vikings now know they can rely on both their offense and defense to win games after their impressive win over the Rams last week. The Lions will keep it close, but I think the Viking cover on Thursday.

Chargers (-2.5) at Cowboys

  • Unfortunately will be going against the ‘Boys in this one. While they have not been consistent all year, the Chargers have been getting great play on both offense and defense. The Cowboys are getting Tyron Smith back, but you have to wonder how much better he is just 4 days after not being able to play on Sunday night. There will still be no Zeke or Sean Lee, so I have the Chargers winning and covering in a close game.

Giants at Redskins (-7.5)

  • The Redskins have got to be shooting themselves in the foot after blowing that game in New Orleans this past Sunday. They will get a quick chance to rebound, and I think they will make the most of it. The Giants looked better last week, but this offense still looks awful. I think the Redskins have a big night and easily win and cover over the Giants.

Buccaneers (+9.5) at Falcons

  • The Falcons have looked better the last two weeks, but I’m still not sold they are back to the elite team we saw last season. That being said, they should have no problem winning at home over the Falcons. However, the Bucs have won two in a row, and I like them to cover this big spread.

Browns at Bengals (-8)

  • I picked the Browns to upset the Bengals earlier this season, but I sure as hell won’t be doing that this time around. The Bengals are not great, but they will definitely beat the Browns at home, and I like them to cover as well, as the Browns have not only lost every game, but have been just 2-8 against the spread.

Titans (-3) at Colts

  • The Titans have had a long time to think about their awful performance against the Steelers. Therefore, I like them to rebound this weekend in Indy. The Colts have also had a lot of time to think about the game they blew against the Steelers. I think this spread is perfect, but since I like the Titans to win, I’ll pick them to cover as well.

Bills (+10) at Chiefs

  • The Bills have struggled a lot more, but these two teams have both been on a decline of late. Due to this, I think the spread of 10 points is rather large, and I think the Bills will cover. However, the Chiefs are the home team and have not been blown out by 30+ each of the last two weeks, so they will get the win.

Dolphins at Patriots (-16)

  • This is likely the biggest spread we will see all season. And for that reason I’m gonna go with it. The Patriots have been dominating of late, and the Dolphins have really struggled. Give me the Patriots by a billion.

Panthers (-4.5) at Jets

  • With the Panthers being very inconsistent despite a 7-3 record, and the Jets overachieving this season, it will be interesting to see how these teams fare after their bye. I think this game goes very similar to when the Falcons came to the Meadowlands, and the Panthers grind out a win, and enough to cover.

Bears at Eagles (-13.5)

  • The Eagles are definitely winning the NFC East, so at this point, it will be continuing to keep the team rolling heading into the playoffs. And I think they do just that against the Bears. Chicago has not played bad football this year, but the Eagles have dominated at home, and I think they cover this big spread on Sunday.

Seahawks at 49ers (+6.5)

  • The losses of Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor could be too much for Seattle to overcome this season. However, with Russell Wilson at QB, they will be able to win games and be competitive. The Niners are coming off their first win, and they played them close in Week 2, so I like them to cover. However, the Seahawks will grind out a win in this one.

Saints at Rams (-2.5)

  • After losing a big NFC matchup last week, the Rams get another shot this week against the Saints. And I think they will make the most of it this time. The Saints needed a lot to get that win at home over the Redskins, and their defense is banged up. I’ll take the Rams in this one at home.

Jaguars (-5.5) at Cardinals

  • Despite having Blake Bortles at QB, the Jaguars have shown they can win games with their defense and Leonard Fournette. The Cardinals are even more banged up now with Blaine Gabbert at QB. Blaine Gabbert revenge game? I don’t think so. The Jags D will eat him up at they will win and cover in Arizona.

Broncos at Raiders (-5)

  • With new starting QB Paxton Lynch in, the Broncos have a big stretch coming up in terms of their future at that position. Considering he’s been behind Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler this season, I don’t see him finding success this week. The Raiders have struggled, but not nearly as much as the Broncos, so I think they win and cover at home.

Packers at Steelers (-14)

  • Pretty crazy that there are three games this weke with 13.5 points or greater spreads. Aaron Rodgers will now miss his second consecutive start against the Steelers since beating them in Super Bowl XLV. While the Steelers play down to their competition a lot, the Packers got crushed by the Ravens, a team which is not nearly as good as Pittsburgh. I think the Steelers light up the Packers on Sunday night, and cover as well.

Texans (+7) at Ravens

  • The Texans were able to finally find success last week with Tom Savage under center. The Ravens have also played much better of late with their shutout of the shorthanded Packers in Green Bay last week. The Ravens have not been consistent all year, so I don’t think they dominate again. However, I like them to win a close one with the Texans covering.

That’s it for this week, be back for Week 12. Can the Giants erase bad memories for New York football on Thanksgiving night?

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