McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 7

Some weeks, there’s a reason it’s called gambling, not winning…

Image result for obj vs eagles 2018

…cause the public actually won.

In Week 5, I faded every team getting more than 60% of the public’s vote, and went 6-2 in those games. In Week 6, the same strategy went just 4-5. Don’t think Week 5 was just a fluke though- fading teams getting public love is a proven effective strategy, but just like any gambling strategy, there’s gonna be some weeks it doesn’t work. Overall, it was an average week on both fronts, starting terribly but ending strong. I went 8-7 straight up, and 7-8 against the spread. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Eagles at Giants (+2)

Seahawks at Raiders (+3) (London)

Colts (+2.5) at Jets

Chargers at Browns (Pick ‘Em)

Bears at Dolphins (+7) 

  • This spread changed when Ryan Tannehill was announced as out, the spread adjusted a lot. I kept my Dolphins spread pick but switched to Bears outright.

Buccaneers (+3) at Falcons

Cardinals at Vikings (-9.5)

Bills at Texans (-10)

Steelers at Bengals (-1.5)

Panthers at Redskins (+1)

Rams at Broncos (+7)

Ravens (-2.5) at Titans

Jaguars at Cowboys (+3)

Chiefs at Patriots (-4)

49ers (+9) at Packers

2018 Straight-Up: 58-33-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 49-41-3

Time for some winners, winners, WINNERS in Week 7.

Image result for stu feiner gif

Broncos at Cardinals (+1.5)

  • Broncos 45, Cardinals 10
  • 0-2 to start the week

Titans (+6.5) at Chargers (London)

  • Titans are coming off a 20+ point loss, which leads to being undervalued by the public
  • Titans really are not bad and the Chargers are not that good, so this spread is too big, especially for a neutral sited game
  • Chargers win by a field goal

Image result for titans chargers

Patriots at Bears (+3)

  • Upset pick of the week
  • Public loves the road Patriots who appear to have found their groove in 3 straight home games
  • Crazy stat I heard on a Cowboys podcast I listen to, teams who play the Chiefs are giving up an average of 30 points the following week
  • I like the home Bears defense to play well, and combining that with the stat above, I have the Bears getting the win

Image result for super bowl xx

Browns at Buccaneers (-3.5)

  • Bucs offense has been incredible this year
  • Browns still winless on the road
  • Big matchup between 2 teams aiming to prove they can compete this year
  • Public vote implies this could be a sucker pick, but I think the Bucs are the better team, at home, and this is a low spread
  • Gonna post this gif every time I pick the Bucs

Image result for jameis eat the w gif

Texans at Jaguars (-4)

  • Jaguars are returning home after 2 brutal performances on the road
  • Texans have won 3 in a row, but they were favored in all 3 and none of them were particularly impressive
  • Let’s not act like the Jags are suddenly bad, they had down weeks last year too
  • Jags return home and win by 2 scores

Image result for jaguars texans

Vikings at Jets (+3.5)

  • Another upset pick
  • Jets have beaten the public the last two weeks at home, good things come in threes
  • Vikings are an elite team but are vulnerable, and they didn’t look too hot the last time they played an AFC East team
  • Darnold and the Jets pull off another one at Metlife

Image result for jets vikings

Bills (+7) at Colts

  • Nathan Peterman is not starting- a good thing for Buffalo
  • Colts tend to play to their competition, whether good or bad
  • Colts win, but by less than a TD

Image result for colts bills

Lions (-3) at Dolphins

  • Lions looked strong in both weeks leading up to their bye
  • The Brocketship won’t be able to put together two wins in a row
  • Lions win by a score, and enough to cover

Image result for lions dolphins

Panthers (+4.5) at Eagles 

  • Panthers are better than what they’ve shown the last two weeks = undervalued
  • Eagles finally played well, but it was against the Giants
  • I think these two teams are pretty even, so I have the home Eagles edging it out with the Panthers covering

Image result for panthers eagles

Saints at Ravens (-3)

  • Easy pick in my mind
  • Public loves Saints, probably for any of the million reasons:
    • Offense is hot
    • Just won big on Monday Night Football then had a bye
    • Drew Brees, a very likeable and accomplished QB, just became the NFL’s all time leading passer, and everyone still has that on their mind
    • The Saints are better compared to the NFC than the Ravens are compared to the AFC
  • Buttttttt, the Ravens are hot too, and at home
  • I love the idea of a hot defense at home against a hot team that may be cooled off by their bye, Ravens win this one

Image result for ravens saints

Cowboys (+1) at Redskins

  • The Cowboys have not won on the road, but I feel as though last week could be a turning point
  • The public is not favoring the Redskins, but they are in first and it feels like one of those games where they come in with an “edge” after a big home win, only to lay a dud at home the next week
  • Cowboys defense is on the edge of premier status, and if their offense can play even a fraction of how they played against what EVERYONE considers the “best defense in the NFL”, then they are undoubtedly the better team here and should win this game

Image result for dak vs redskins

Rams (-9.5) at 49ers

  • Rams may have won the last two games on the road, but by just a total of 5 points- they’re due for a big performance
  • Shorthanded Niners have been undervalued in both road games without Jimmy G, but were clearly overvalued in their only home game against the lowly Cardinals
  • Rams break out the offense to win AND cover the big road spread

Image result for rams niners

Bengals (+5.5) at Chiefs

  • Chiefs are 6-0 against the spread, and have edged out very close spread wins 2 of the last 3 weeks
  • This is gonna be a high scoring game
  • As good as Mahomes and the Chiefs are, I feel this is too many points for a defense this bad to be giving
  • Chiefs control the game but Bengals get some late points on a prevent defense to cover

Image result for bengals chiefs

Giants (+4) at Falcons

  • I see this game going very similarly to the Giants game against the Panthers
  • 5 of Falcons 6 games have been decided by a TD or less
  • Giants are on extra rest and have been absolutely crushed in the media with the extra time
  • Public loves Falcons, I think Giants keep it close to cover but the Falcons win by a field goal

That’s all for Week 7, be back for Week 8 after this 14-0 week. Will the Giants get some better fortunes on the road in the NFC South this time?

 

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