McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 13

When looking back at my picks this season, Week 12 will be one I remember…

Image result for texans titans mnf

…cause it was arguably my best week to date.

While this was not my best week against the spread, it was my best week overall. I went a good but not great 8-7 against the spread, but tied a season high going 12-3 outright. If you’re a degenerate gambler like my friend Jack Dugan and took all these picks, you would’ve made a lot of money. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Bears at Lions (+3)

Redskins at Cowboys (-7)

Falcons (+13) at Saints

Patriots (-13) at Jets

Raiders at Ravens (-13)

Giants at Eagles (-5)

49ers at Bucs (-1.5)

Browns at Bengals (Pick ‘Em)

Seahawks at Panthers (-3)

  • Thanks Bert, this one HURT. Had a 3 team parlay (Pats, Ravens, Panthers). Russell Wilson murders me with a 40 yard TD on 4th down and then a game winning drive. Graham Gano also screws me with his missed field goal late in the game. Can’t complain too much though, he did beat the Giants with a 63 yarder earlier this year.

Jaguars at Bills (+3)

Cardinals (+14) at Chargers

Dolphins at Colts (-9)

Steelers at Broncos (+3)

Packers at Vikings (-3.5)

  • While my pick won, this game is a perfect example of why you shouldn’t bet cause you can get so lucky or unlucky sometimes. Instead of taking a field goal to basically lock the spread cover, the Vikings go for it on 4th down to try and seal the game but don’t convert. Now Aaron Rodgers gets the ball back with a chance to cover the spread by half a point, but misses a wide open Davante Adams in the end zone. This pick got some good luck after getting some terrible luck just a few moments earlier.

Titans at Texans (-3.5)

  • Switched my pick to Texans spread as it dropped from 6.5 to 3.5. Smart change.

2018 Straight-Up: 108-66-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 82-86-8

Time to take a bat to your bookmaker again in Week 13.

Image result for stu feiner ready to roll

Cowboys (+7.5) at Saints

  • Cowboys 13, Saints 10
  • Wanted to take the Cowboys outright too, but feared the Saints crushing them and looking like an idiot. The Boys are now 2-0 outright as 7 point dogs this year. 
  • 1-1 to start the week, couldn’t be happier about that. Who Dak? 

Image result for cowboys saints tnf

Ravens at Falcons (-1)

  • Falcons are too talented to keep losing as much as they have
  • Falcons losing to the Saints by 14 doesn’t tell the whole story- they fumbled in the red zone 3 times
  • Lamar Jackson is 2-0, but both were at home against the lowly Bengals and Raiders
  • Falcons win by a score

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Bears (-3.5) at Giants

  • This isn’t a knock on Trubisky, but I think the Bears’ unique offense can work with a backup too
  • Any hope for the Giants pretty much ended with second half collapse at Philadelphia
  • Bears force at least 2 turnovers, win by at least a TD over the Giants

Image result for devin hester vs giants'

Cardinals at Packers (-14)

  • Packers have lost 4 of their last 5, and all 4 were on the road against better teams
  • Only win in that stretch was against a Dolphins team led by Brock at home
  • Packers return home and refind their groove against a weak Cardinals by winning AND covering

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Rams at Lions (+10)

  • Public hammering road Rams (79% as of Friday)
  • Rams are 1-5-2 over their last 8 ATS
  • Lions are good enough of a home team that they shouldn’t be getting 10 points
  • Rams win by a TD but Lions cover

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Broncos (-5.5) at Bengals

  • Broncos hitting their stride at the right time
  • Bengals looked hopeless last week, and now Andy Dalton is done for the season
  • Public hammering Denver (75% as of Friday) so this could be a sucker pick, but think Broncos win by a TD to barely cover

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Browns (+5.5) at Texans

  • Don’t think the Browns make the playoffs, but they are hitting stride at the perfect time to build for 2019 success
  • Winners of 8 straight, Texans are due for a loss, or at least a close game
  • Texans are coming off an emotional win in their first game since owner Bob McNair died
  • Texans win by a field goal, Browns cover

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Bills at Dolphins (-3.5)

  • Easy pick in my mind
  • Sean McDermott has done a great job based on the talent his team has, but lack of talent is why the Bills haven’t been consistent week to week
  • With Ryan Tannehill back, Dolphins should have won at hot Colts team
  • Dolphins cover at home, win by 7-10 points

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Colts (-4) at Jaguars

  • Public hammering Indy (75% as of Friday), so could be a sucker pick
  • However, Cody Kessler does not give the Jags a better chance than Blake Bortles would
  • Colts stay hot, win by a TD to barely cover

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Panthers at Bucs (+3.5)

  • Upset pick of the week
  • The Bucs and their QBs have been so up and down, I think they’re currently on a Jameis Winston up swing
  • Public hammering Carolina (72% as of Friday)
  • Bucs edge out a close win at home

Image result for jameis eat the w gif

Chiefs (-15) at Raiders

  • While I’m picking the Chiefs to cover, don’t think it will be a complete blowout cause the Raiders have looked a little better (emphasis on a little) the last few weeks
  • Raiders will fight in the first half to keep it close, but Chiefs are way too talented and pull away late to cover as well

Image result for tyreek hill raiders

Jets at Titans (-9)

  • Titans have fallen flat on their face last 2 weeks on the road
  • Smacked the Pats last time they were at home, they’re an up and down team
  • Jets have really struggled of late
  • Titans win by 2 TDs

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Vikings (+5) at Patriots

  • Think this will be a close game and spread is extremely accurate
  • Public hammering Pats (66% as of Friday)
  • Vikings need to turn a corner at this time of year
  • Think Pats win by a FG with Vikings covering
  • Could change my pick if spread moves more in Vikings direction, so be sure to check my final pick on Twitter @mikejmcgon

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49ers at Seahawks (-10)

  • Seahawks are hitting their stride at the right time
  • Niners appear to be looking towards a top draft pick
  • Not as much of a blowout as many will predict, but Hawks win by 2 TDs to cover

Image result for richard sherman tipped pass nfc championship

Chargers at Steelers (-3)

  • As much as the Chargers have impressed, think most would agree the Steelers are the better team
  • Steelers need a home win badly after last 2 road games have come down to the goal line
  • The score will be much closer, but think the Steelers win easily the same way they did against the Panthers at home

Image result for chargers steelers

Redskins (+6) at Eagles

  • 9 of Eagles’ 11 games have been decided by 7 or less
  • Eagles really didn’t even look good last week, they were just the better team than the Giants
  • Redskins are no threat, but showed last week they can compete and are coming off extra rest
  • Colt McCoy couldn’t repeat his Dallas magic, can he repeat his Monday Night magic?
  • Eagles are better and at home so they win by a FG but Redskins cover

Image result for eagles redskins

That’s it for Week 13, be back for Week 14. Will the Redskins lose the cover in heartbreaking fashion on Monday Night again?

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