All posts by McGons

2-Time Marist Floor Hockey Champion, easy resume builder. Long suffering Cowboys, Mets, Nets, and Rangers fan. Follow along for early season optimism, only to end with late season heartbreak.

McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 14

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In a year in which all of the league’s best teams have been winning with prolific offense, the Cowboys proved in Week 13 that defense can still win big games. The Cowboys rising defense held one of the most unstoppable single season offenses of all time to just 10 points. While I’m not convincing myself the Cowboys are going to go on a crazy run (yet), the turnaround this team has made has been awesome to watch.

So while the week started well with a Boys win and a spread win, the rest of the picks from last week weren’t great. I went a decent 10-6 outright, but I went just 5-11 against the spread. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Saints at Cowboys (+7.5)

Ravens at Falcons (-2.5)

Bears (-3.5) at Giants

Cardinals at Packers (-13.5)

Rams at Lions (+10)

Broncos (-4) at Bengals

Browns (+4.5) at Texans

Bills at Dolphins (-3.5)

Panthers at Bucs (+3.5)

Colts (-4.5) at Jaguars

Chiefs (-14) at Raiders

Jets at Titans (-10)

49ers at Seahawks (-10)

Vikings (+6) at Patriots

Chargers at Steelers (-3)

Redskins (+6) at Eagles

2018 Straight-Up: 118-72-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 87-97-8

4 weeks left in the regular season, lets close on a high note.

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Jaguars at Titans (-5.5)

  • Jaguars 30, Titans 9
  • 2-0 to start the week!

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Panthers (-1.5) at Browns

  • Panthers need to win this one much more than the Browns do
  • Due to win after multiple narrow losses
  • Could be a sucker pick (62% on CAR as of Friday), but the Panthers are the better team and need this one, they win by a TD

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Saints at Bucs (+9.5)

  • Panthers are up and down but are currently on a good play streak
  • Prior to last week, Bucs were only team to have beat Saints this season
  • Bucs getting a lot of points, they’ll cover at home, but the Saints will get back in the win column

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Colts at Texans (-4.5)

  • No one is slowing down the Texans right now
  • Colts looked great during 5 game win streak, but none of the teams they beat are going to the playoffs
  • If this spread was a little bigger, I may take Colts, but I’m with Texans by a TD to cover

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Giants (-3.5) at Redskins

  • Public hammering the Giants (77% as of Friday), so I really don’t like this pick
  • However, the Redskins are more dead than Darby O’Gills
  • Redskins could not do anything the other night once they turned to Mark Sanchez
  • Giants playing better
  • Hate to take what feels like the obvious pick, but I have Giants by a TD

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Ravens at Chiefs (-6.5)

  • Lamar Jackson is 3-0, but all of those teams will miss the playoffs
  • Chiefs are his first tough opponent
  • Chiefs first home game in awhile, they return home to win by 2 TDs over the Ravens
  • Lets go Mahomes! (fantasy)

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Falcons at Packers (-4.5)

  • Just feels right that the Packers will roll in first game without McCarthy
  • Falcons losing to everyone
  • Rodgers balls out with McCarthy gone, Packers win easily

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Jets at Bills (-3.5)

  • Public hammering Bills (73% as of Friday), so could be a sucker pick
  • But this feels like the right pick in my mind
  • Bills have been playing competitive football of late a destroyed the Jets just a few weeks ago
  • Bills win by a TD

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Patriots at Dolphins (+7.5)

  • Tom Brady’s annual hell- Pats have lost 4 of last 5 in Miami
  • Miami could lowkey steal the 6 seed
  • Dolphins keep it close here like they always do, but Patriots are heating up and win

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Broncos (-3.5) at 49ers

  • Don’t think it’ll be a blowout, but not sure how this spread is so low
  • Broncos have been heating up at the perfect time, Niners are headed towards the No. 1 pick
  • Broncos win by 10

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Bengals at Chargers (-14)

  • These two teams could not be going in more opposite of directions
  • Chargers still trying to win the division
  • Chargers win in a rout, and cover

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Lions at Cardinals (+3)

  • Josh Rosen wants to build off of last week’s huge upset
  • Lions have fallen apart
  • Young teams like the Cardinals are either trying to tank at this time of year or build for next season- they’re going for the latter
  • Cardinals get the upset win at home

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Steelers at Raiders (+10)

  • Steelers have really struggled of late and tend to struggle as big favorites
  • Raiders have been playing a little better of late
  • Steelers are the much better team so I definitely like them to win, but Raiders fight to keep it within 10

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Eagles at Cowboys (-3.5)

  • This is a big rivalry game, so not gonna call it a lock, but I have no clue how this spread is so low
  • Cowboys are hot, just beat arguably the league’s best team, and the Eagles have looked underwhelming all season
  • Eagles D is banged up and Cowboys offense has played better since adding Amari Cooper
  • Cowboys win by a TD in this big NFC East matchup

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Rams at Bears (+3)

  • Bears getting Mitch back and want to secure their division
  • Rams still chasing top seed, but have locked up division already
  • Feels like this game means more to Bears
  • Spread is so low that this feels like a trap, public hammering Rams
  • Bears earn a close upset win at home

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Vikings (+3) at Seahawks

  • Really tough pick, these two teams are so even
  • Vikings pick is almost a gut feeling, Kirk needs to finally win a game that justifies his pay day
  • Expecting a really close game, but the overall better roster in the Vikings gets the upset win on the road

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That’s it for Week 14. Can the Cowboys defense keep it up?

McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 13

When looking back at my picks this season, Week 12 will be one I remember…

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…cause it was arguably my best week to date.

While this was not my best week against the spread, it was my best week overall. I went a good but not great 8-7 against the spread, but tied a season high going 12-3 outright. If you’re a degenerate gambler like my friend Jack Dugan and took all these picks, you would’ve made a lot of money. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Bears at Lions (+3)

Redskins at Cowboys (-7)

Falcons (+13) at Saints

Patriots (-13) at Jets

Raiders at Ravens (-13)

Giants at Eagles (-5)

49ers at Bucs (-1.5)

Browns at Bengals (Pick ‘Em)

Seahawks at Panthers (-3)

  • Thanks Bert, this one HURT. Had a 3 team parlay (Pats, Ravens, Panthers). Russell Wilson murders me with a 40 yard TD on 4th down and then a game winning drive. Graham Gano also screws me with his missed field goal late in the game. Can’t complain too much though, he did beat the Giants with a 63 yarder earlier this year.

Jaguars at Bills (+3)

Cardinals (+14) at Chargers

Dolphins at Colts (-9)

Steelers at Broncos (+3)

Packers at Vikings (-3.5)

  • While my pick won, this game is a perfect example of why you shouldn’t bet cause you can get so lucky or unlucky sometimes. Instead of taking a field goal to basically lock the spread cover, the Vikings go for it on 4th down to try and seal the game but don’t convert. Now Aaron Rodgers gets the ball back with a chance to cover the spread by half a point, but misses a wide open Davante Adams in the end zone. This pick got some good luck after getting some terrible luck just a few moments earlier.

Titans at Texans (-3.5)

  • Switched my pick to Texans spread as it dropped from 6.5 to 3.5. Smart change.

2018 Straight-Up: 108-66-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 82-86-8

Time to take a bat to your bookmaker again in Week 13.

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Cowboys (+7.5) at Saints

  • Cowboys 13, Saints 10
  • Wanted to take the Cowboys outright too, but feared the Saints crushing them and looking like an idiot. The Boys are now 2-0 outright as 7 point dogs this year. 
  • 1-1 to start the week, couldn’t be happier about that. Who Dak? 

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Ravens at Falcons (-1)

  • Falcons are too talented to keep losing as much as they have
  • Falcons losing to the Saints by 14 doesn’t tell the whole story- they fumbled in the red zone 3 times
  • Lamar Jackson is 2-0, but both were at home against the lowly Bengals and Raiders
  • Falcons win by a score

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Bears (-3.5) at Giants

  • This isn’t a knock on Trubisky, but I think the Bears’ unique offense can work with a backup too
  • Any hope for the Giants pretty much ended with second half collapse at Philadelphia
  • Bears force at least 2 turnovers, win by at least a TD over the Giants

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Cardinals at Packers (-14)

  • Packers have lost 4 of their last 5, and all 4 were on the road against better teams
  • Only win in that stretch was against a Dolphins team led by Brock at home
  • Packers return home and refind their groove against a weak Cardinals by winning AND covering

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Rams at Lions (+10)

  • Public hammering road Rams (79% as of Friday)
  • Rams are 1-5-2 over their last 8 ATS
  • Lions are good enough of a home team that they shouldn’t be getting 10 points
  • Rams win by a TD but Lions cover

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Broncos (-5.5) at Bengals

  • Broncos hitting their stride at the right time
  • Bengals looked hopeless last week, and now Andy Dalton is done for the season
  • Public hammering Denver (75% as of Friday) so this could be a sucker pick, but think Broncos win by a TD to barely cover

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Browns (+5.5) at Texans

  • Don’t think the Browns make the playoffs, but they are hitting stride at the perfect time to build for 2019 success
  • Winners of 8 straight, Texans are due for a loss, or at least a close game
  • Texans are coming off an emotional win in their first game since owner Bob McNair died
  • Texans win by a field goal, Browns cover

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Bills at Dolphins (-3.5)

  • Easy pick in my mind
  • Sean McDermott has done a great job based on the talent his team has, but lack of talent is why the Bills haven’t been consistent week to week
  • With Ryan Tannehill back, Dolphins should have won at hot Colts team
  • Dolphins cover at home, win by 7-10 points

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Colts (-4) at Jaguars

  • Public hammering Indy (75% as of Friday), so could be a sucker pick
  • However, Cody Kessler does not give the Jags a better chance than Blake Bortles would
  • Colts stay hot, win by a TD to barely cover

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Panthers at Bucs (+3.5)

  • Upset pick of the week
  • The Bucs and their QBs have been so up and down, I think they’re currently on a Jameis Winston up swing
  • Public hammering Carolina (72% as of Friday)
  • Bucs edge out a close win at home

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Chiefs (-15) at Raiders

  • While I’m picking the Chiefs to cover, don’t think it will be a complete blowout cause the Raiders have looked a little better (emphasis on a little) the last few weeks
  • Raiders will fight in the first half to keep it close, but Chiefs are way too talented and pull away late to cover as well

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Jets at Titans (-9)

  • Titans have fallen flat on their face last 2 weeks on the road
  • Smacked the Pats last time they were at home, they’re an up and down team
  • Jets have really struggled of late
  • Titans win by 2 TDs

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Vikings (+5) at Patriots

  • Think this will be a close game and spread is extremely accurate
  • Public hammering Pats (66% as of Friday)
  • Vikings need to turn a corner at this time of year
  • Think Pats win by a FG with Vikings covering
  • Could change my pick if spread moves more in Vikings direction, so be sure to check my final pick on Twitter @mikejmcgon

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49ers at Seahawks (-10)

  • Seahawks are hitting their stride at the right time
  • Niners appear to be looking towards a top draft pick
  • Not as much of a blowout as many will predict, but Hawks win by 2 TDs to cover

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Chargers at Steelers (-3)

  • As much as the Chargers have impressed, think most would agree the Steelers are the better team
  • Steelers need a home win badly after last 2 road games have come down to the goal line
  • The score will be much closer, but think the Steelers win easily the same way they did against the Panthers at home

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Redskins (+6) at Eagles

  • 9 of Eagles’ 11 games have been decided by 7 or less
  • Eagles really didn’t even look good last week, they were just the better team than the Giants
  • Redskins are no threat, but showed last week they can compete and are coming off extra rest
  • Colt McCoy couldn’t repeat his Dallas magic, can he repeat his Monday Night magic?
  • Eagles are better and at home so they win by a FG but Redskins cover

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That’s it for Week 13, be back for Week 14. Will the Redskins lose the cover in heartbreaking fashion on Monday Night again?

McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 12

Well, that was fun.

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One of the most anticipated regular season games I can ever remember not only lived up to the hype, but well exceeded it. I think everyone other than Rams fans were praying this masterpiece would not end and go to OT. Not only did these teams both go off offensively, but both scored defensive touchdowns, including 2 by the Rams. Barring a miraculous run by the Cowboys, there’s no doubt that I want a Chiefs-Rams or Chiefs-Saints matchup in the Super Bowl.

As for my picks, it was a bit of a weird week, but overall a good one record wise. I went 8-5 outright, and a wild 6-3-4 against the spread. 4 pushes! Here’s a look bad at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red, push in green):

Packers at Seahawks (-3)

Texans (-3) at Redskins

Bengals (+6.5) at Ravens

Steelers at Jaguars (+4)

Panthers at Lions (+4)

Cowboys (+3.5) at Falcons

Titans at Colts (-1.5)

Bucs (+3) at Giants

Raiders at Cardinals (-4.5)

Broncos (+7) at Chargers

Eagles (+7) at Saints

Vikings at Bears (-2.5)

Chiefs at Rams (-3)

2018 Straight-Up: 96-63-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 74-79-8

Thankful for football and winning money gambling.

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Bears at Lions (+3)

  • Bears 23, Lions 16
  • Bet on this pick, not thankful for Matt Staford’s Pick 6 and other INT in the end zone in the 4th quarter

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Redskins at Cowboys (-7)

  • Cowboys 31, Redskins 23
  • Thankful for Amari Cooper and the refs missing the helmet to helmet call late to preserve the Cowboys cover

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Falcons (+13) at Saints

  • Saints 31, Falcons 17
  • Not thankful for losing the cover by 1 point with the Falcons fumbling in the red zone 3 times
  • 2-1 outright and 1-2 against the spread to start the week

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Patriots (-10.5) at Jets

  • Vegas may lose a lot of money on this one; 90% of the public is on the Pats as of Saturday
  • These matchups are usually close, but the Jets have fallen hard of late, and the Pats are coming off a bad loss and then they bye; two situations in which they usually play great after
  • Could be a major sucker pick, but I have the Pats winning by 14+

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Raiders at Ravens (-10.5)

  • The Ravens have not been very strong of late, but I like anyone when they’re playing the Raiders
  • Avoid taking this game though as rookie Lamar Jackson will be starting again for the Ravens, and you can never trust the Raiders
  • Not a complete blowout, but Ravens win by 14 or so to cover

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Giants at Eagles (-4.5)

  • Will be pulling hard for the Giants in this one, so hope I’m wrong, but I love this pick
  • Before their blowout loss to the Saints, the Eagles blowout win over the Giants was their only game all season decided by more than 7 points
  • Giants offense has looked good the last two weeks, but their defense hasn’t, and we shouldn’t overreact to 3 point wins over the Niners and Bucs
  • Eagles win by 2 TDs

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49ers at Bucs (-2.5)

  • Don’t think it will be a blowout, but love this pick
  • You’re giving me the better team, at home, laying less than 3 points, I’m gonna take it
  • Jameis Winston will finally play a good game after his second half performance last week, Bucs win by a TD

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Browns at Bengals (-2.5)

  • Same as my last pick: you’re giving me the better team, at home, laying less than 3 points, I’m gonna take it
  • AJ Green out hurts, but the Browns are also winless on the road this year
  • Bengals win by less than a TD, but enough to cover

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Seahawks at Panthers (-3) 

  • How many times do I have to say it? You’re giving me the better team, at home, only laying 3 points, I’m gonna take it
  • In addition, we all know the Seahawks aren’t great on the road, while the Panthers are low key great at home; 5-0 on the season
  • Panthers get back in the groove and win by a TD

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Jaguars at Bills (+3)

  • Upset alert
  • As crazy as this sounds, these two teams matched up in playoffs last season; teams looking to avenge 2017 playoff loses are 5-1 in those matchups this season, including 5 straight since the Eagles opening night win over the Falcons
  • Jaguars played in their Super Bowl last week, they’ll take a step back this week and Josh Allen will lead the Bills to the home win in his return

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Cardinals (+13) at Chargers

  • Including the London game, the Chargers are just 1-4 ATS at home this season; perfect example of a good team who has no home field advantage
  • Cardinals covered big spread against the Chiefs the last time they were big underdogs at an AFC West team
  • Chargers comfortably win by around 10 but Cardinals cover

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Dolphins at Colts (-7.5)

  • With the same exact spread, I see this game going similar to the Dolphins-Texans game earlier this season
  • Dolphins will compete with Ryan Tannehill back, but Colts have been playing too strong lately and will keep that up
  • Colts win by 10-14 points, enough to cover

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Steelers at Broncos (+3)

  • Upset alert
  • Broncos have had some tough losses this year, 4 of their 6 losses are by a combined 16 points
  • I see them building off last week’s impressive upset at the Chargers
  • Steelers have won 6 in a row, and I think they’re due for a loss after a 16 point second half comeback in a desperate revenge spot against the Jagaurs
  • Broncos win by less than a score

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Packers at Vikings (-3)

  • Public hammering Packers, 72% as of Saturday
  • Really not sure why; Packers are 0-4 outright and 1-3 ATS on the road this season (only win was the Todd Gurley debacle), also are winless as underdogs this season
  • Vikings are the better team, at home, only laying 3, if it isn’t clear based on my prior picks, I’m taking the Vikings by a score

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Titans (+6) at Texans

  • Titans coming off a bad loss against a team that isn’t that much better than them, meaning they’re undervalued
  • Public hammering Texans (65% as of Saturday)
  • Titans beat the Texans as underdogs earlier this season
  • Titans keep it close to cover but the Texans win their 8th straight by a field goal

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That’s all for Week 12. Can the Broncos score another magical upset at home against the Steelers?

McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 11

It looks like I should pick against the Cowboys more often…

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…cause then maybe they’ll win more games.

While I was right that the Cowboys would cover this spread, I picked against them outright for the first time this year, and to no surprise they won over the Eagles as 7.5 point dogs.

So while it was a great weekend for me as a fan, it was a tough one for my picks. I went 7-7 outright, and 5-8-1 against the spread. Here’s a look bad at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red, push in green):

Panthers and Steelers (-3.5)

Bills at Jets (-6.5)

  • Bet on this game but wasn’t able to watch. After watching the highlights, I’m happy I wasn’t watching cause I would have been questioning if I still have any credibility picking games at all

Saints at Bengals (+6)

Patriots at Titans (+6.5)

Cardinals at Chiefs (-16.5)

Redskins at Bucs (-3.5)

Lions (+7) at Bears

  • You don’t cover often when your kicker hits the upright FOUR times

Falcons at Browns (+6)

Jaguars (+3) at Colts

Chargers at Raiders (+10)

Dolphins (+12) at Packers

Seahawks (+10) at Rams

Cowboys (+7.5) at Eagles

Giants at 49ers (-3)

2018 Straight-Up: 88-58-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 68-76-4

Week 11 time.

Packers at Seahawks (-3)

  • Seahawks 27, Packers 24
  • 1-0-1 to start the week

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Texans (-3) at Redskins

  • Texans are hot (6-0 since 0-3 start) and coming off the bye
  • Redskins are banged up, and coming off a bad loss and an ugly win over the last 2 games
  • Road teams are 7-2-1 off the bye this season
  • Could be a sucker pick (69% on HOU as of Thursday night), but I have the Texans by a score

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Bengals at Ravens

  • The spread to this game has not been announced yet, I’ll announce my pick from Twitter @mikejmcgon

Steelers at Jaguars (+5)

  • THIS is the last week I’m giving for Jaguars to have any of last season in them
  • Last year the Steelers lost only 4 times, and TWICE were at home to the Jaguars, including the Divisional playoffs
  • Jaguars will be motivated to continue to be the Steelers’ kryptonite and will cover at home, but the Steelers are the way better team this year and win outright

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Panthers at Lions (+4.5)

  • It may feel like the Lions got crushed last week, but they lost by 12 with 4 field goals hitting the upright
  • Lions due for a better home performance, play the Panthers who got demolished in Pittsburgh
  • Public hammering Carolina (80% as of Thursday night), give me the Lions covering, but Panthers winning by a field goal

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Cowboys (+3) at Falcons

  • It’s hard to put too much stock in a team based off of one game (especially the Cowboys), but I think Dallas can build off last week big time
  • The OLine played much better, Amari Cooper is a true threat in this offense, and that opens up the field for Zeke and for Dak to play as he has shown he’s capable of
  • You never know which Falcons team you’re gonna get, but I think they took a big step back in that loss last week
  • Cowboys win a close one

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Titans at Colts (-1)

  • Could be my favorite pick of the week
  • Public loves hot Titans, but it’s easy to overlook that the Colts have won 3 in a row
  • Don’t let the last 2 games fool you- the Titans are only a decent team, and not very good on the road
  • Home Colts win by a score

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Bucs (+1.5) at Giants

  • Don’t let last week fool you- the Giants still stink
  • Last week was bad, but the Bucs still have a much more explosive offense than the Giants
  • Giants aren’t putting 2 in a row together, Bucs win on the road

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Raiders at Cardinals (-5.5)

  • Raiders have become hopeless in any matchup
  • Cardinals have played some competitive games of late
  • Not a blowout, but Cardinals win comfortably by a TD

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Broncos (+7) at Chargers

  • Broncos coming off bye and will likely have “home field advantage” in LA
  • Broncos have lost 3 of 4, but all 3 were by 7 or less
  • Chargers are the much better team though and will win, but by less than a TD

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Eagles (+8.5) at Saints

  • Despite their 4-5 record, the Eagles have been underdogs just once- by 1 point to the Falcons, and they were favored in that one til the last minute
  • We all know the Eagles love the underdog mentality and will come out strong against the team trying to take their throne this year
  • But the Saints are too good this year and will win by a TD with the Eagles covering

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Vikings at Bears (-3)

  • The Bears are for real- they are 6-3, and should’ve beaten the Packers and Dolphins
  • Kirk Cousins is good, but never wins on the big stage
  • Bears show they’re the team to beat in the North and win by a score

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Chiefs at Rams (-3.5)

  • Patrick Mahomes is the the NFL’s new star QB, but Sean McVay is the NFL’s new mastermind
  • Rams are 1-5-1 in last 7 ATS, they’re due to cover again soon
  • Public absolutely hammering KC (85% as of Thursday night), give me the Rams by a score

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Be back for Week 12. Who wins in #MexicoCityGate?

McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 10

Week 8 was the worst week of picks I’ve ever had.

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But as for Week 9? Right back on track.

While this week could have been much better had I not lost 4 of my last 5, just about anything was going to be better than my abysmal Week 8. I went 7-6, both outright and against the spread. I was sitting very strong at 6-2 through the early games before I struggled with the later ones. Here’s a look bad at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Raiders at 49ers (+1.5)

Bears (-10) at Bills

Buccaneers at Panthers (-6)

Chiefs (-9) at Browns

Falcons at Redskins (-1.5)

  • Was very happy to be incorrect here.

Jets at Dolphins (-3)

Steelers at Ravens (-1.5)

Lions at Vikings (-5)

Chargers at Seahawks (Pick ‘Em)

Texans at Broncos (-1)

  • Absolutely brutal loss as the field goal for the outright win and push against the spread missed. Also the first time this year that the over didn’t hit in a game where one of the teams (Broncos) played the Chiefs the week prior. Over 46.5 was looking great when the Broncos went up 17-16 early in the 3rd, but all we got was 3 more points the rest of the way.

Rams at Saints (+2)

Packers (+5) at Patriots

Titans at Cowboys (-4)

  • Not gonna talk about how horrible the rest of this game was, just gonna note how different the game could’ve been had the Cowboys taken advantage early. Maher misses a 38 yarder and Dak throws a bad INT, the Cowboys could have been up 17-0 easily. The game was never the same from there and it fucking sucked. Oh well. At least I won my fantasy game over an Amari Cooper owner by .2 (sorry Tucc).

2018 Straight-Up: 81-51-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 63-68-3

Ready to roll into Week 10.

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Panthers at Steelers (-3.5) 

  •  Steelers 52, Panthers 21 
  •  Well, that was easy. 2-0 to start the week!

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Bills at Jets (-7)

  • No spread is too big when facing Nathan Peterman
  • Josh McCown starting for the Jets, could be better than Sam Darnold would have been in this game (veteran playing one game vs. rookie QB)
  • Jets win easily

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Saints at Bengals (+6)

  • Even minus AJ Green, the Bengals are strong enough of a home team to make this too many points
  • Public hammering Saints who are coming off two very hard fought games against very good teams, could look past the Bengals
  • Bengals coming off bye
  • Saints win by less than a score and Bengals cover

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Patriots at Titans (+7)

  • Public hammering red hot Pats
  • Easy to forget but Patriots beat the Titans in last year’s playoffs- home revenge game for the Titans
  • Also a lot of familiarity with the Pats for the Titans in Dion Lewis, Malcolm Butler, and head coach Mike Vrabel
  • Titans build off Monday night to keep it close and cover but Patriots win

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Cardinals at Chiefs (-16.5)

  • The difference between this and the Vikings 17 point spread against the Bills is we know a lot more about these teams then we did about MIN/BUF in Week 3, and the Chiefs are much more consistent than the Vikings
  • Really nothing much else to say besides I think Mahomes and the Chiefs explode against the young Cardinals at home to cover in a rout

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Redskins at Buccaneers (-3)

  • After two wins against weak offenses, Redskins fell flat on their face at home against a good offense
  • Redskins may be too banged up to keep this strong play up
  • Gunslinger Fitzy and the Bucs win a high scoring game

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Lions (+7) at Bears 

  • The Bears are the better team this year, but the Lions have been beating up on the Bears for years- they’ve won 9 of the last 10 in this matchup
  • Lions undervalued after bad performances against better teams the last two weeks
  • Lions keep it close to cover but Bears win by a field goal

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Falcons at Browns (+6)

  • Public hammering Falcons and spread has moved from -4 to -6 after last week’s blowout win
  • Browns offense played better than expected last week, did not get blown out nearly as bad as most thought they would vs. Chiefs
  • Second game under Greg Williams against a similar but less talented team as the Chiefs, I think the Browns cover but the Falcons win
  • Also: not gonna let last week’s loss discourage me. Browns played the Chiefs last week- bet over 51. They gave a shoutout to this stat I have been telling you all about for a few weeks now on Pardon My Take

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Jaguars (+3) at Colts

  • Jaguars played a little better the week before the bye- there’s no way the 2017 Jaguars are not possible of breaking out
  • Granted they were much better and Luck was out, but the Jaguars pummeled the Colts in both matchups last year
  • Jags look a little stronger off the bye and pull the upset in Indy

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Chargers at Raiders (+10)

  • Look I’m not saying this is a great pick, but hear me out
  • Raiders are coming off a game in which people are saying they quit, expect a better performance in front of their home crowd
  • Public hammering Chargers
  • Teams who lost the previous week on Thursday Night Football are 6-2 against the spread
  • Chargers win easily but Raiders show some fight and cover the big spread

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Dolphins (+10) at Packers

  • Packers are coming off two road games against very good teams, could easily look past this home game against the Dolphins
  • Niners covered similar spread in Green Bay a few weeks ago, and the Dolphins are much better than the Niners
  • Packers win but Dolphins cover this large number

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Seahawks (+9.5) at Rams

  • Seahawks had a down week last week, but I’m still convinced they’re a good team, and they always play teams tough
  • Rams are 1-4-1 in their last 6 against the spread, and the majority of their games have been close this year
  • Haven’t heard this, but have to assume the 12th Man will be taking over LA
  • Rams are the better team and win by a TD, but the Seahawks cover

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Cowboys (+7) at Eagles

  • “Oh Mike come on the Cowboys suck, the Eagles are home and in prime time, this is a obvious blowout” is what 82% of the public (as of Thursday night) is saying right now
  • The Cowboys looked real bad last week, but what have the Eagles done? They’ve underperformed all year, and while the bye may help, people are acting like they’re back on track after hardly edging out the Jaguars, who the Cowboys beat 40-7
  • Every Eagles game besides the one against the Giants has been decided by a score or less
  • Cowboys show some pride after last week’s performance and keep it close, but the better team at home gets the win

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Giants at 49ers (-3.5)

  • I don’t see myself taking the Giants ever again
  • Giants may be coming off the bye, but the Niners are coming off a Thursday night game, not too much of a difference
  • I don’t like to overreact to blowout wins, but there was a certain feeling last week about what the Niners did that has me thinking they’ll grind out a few wins to end the season
  • Niners win by a TD

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See you in Week 11. Who wins the 3rd Dak-Wentz Sunday Night battle?

McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 9

I’ll start off by posting pictures of where I went right last week…

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…cause their isn’t too much to show.

I’ll start off where things went right. You all know I care a lot more my spread picks than my outright picks, but I actually did well straight up. I went 9-5, and if for some crazy reason you bet every single one of my outright picks, you would have made a profit.

But even an amazing outright week wouldn’t have made up for my performance against the spread. I posted a lifetime worst 2-12 record. Yup. It was bad. REALLLLLLY bad. And I apologize. My picks last week were really no bueno. I’ll be better. I made some bad picks, but saw some very unfortunate luck that turned what would have been a bad week into a horrific week. Along with some comments on the madness, here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Dolphins (+7.5) at Texans 

Eagles (-4) at Jaguars (London)

Broncos at Chiefs (-9)

  • Finally gave into the public and the Chiefs, and they don’t cover for the first time this season. Nearly stole this one on a late field goal, but Andy Reid decided to pin the Broncos in instead of take a 49 yard field. Cause he has no respect for the spread!

Browns (+8.5) at Steelers

Buccaneers at Bengals (-3.5)

  • Sometimes, your pick is so right that the other team has to switch QBs, and your team was not prepared to face that QB so they stage a comeback. Killer non-cover by the Bengals here. And once again, 3.5 point spreads should be illegal. At least I was right about taking the over.

Ravens (-2.5) at Panthers

Redskins at Giants (+1)

Jets (+8) at Bears

Seahawks at Lions (-3)

Colts at Raiders (+3.5)

Packers at Rams (-7.5)

  • Look, I wagered on this game and watched most of it, but I’ll be the first to admit the Rams did not deserve to cover in this game. They really did not play the better football in this game, and the Ty Montgomery fumble is what gave them covering life. Sometimes you just have to get lucky. However, what went down next was arguably the biggest crime in sports gambling history. Look, if Todd Gurley scored the TD, the odds are highly unlikely, but the Rams could potentially miss the extra point, and the Packers COULD potentially score a TD and get the 2 point conversion to tie the game (there are 30 seconds on the clock). So he was not wrong for deciding to not score. However, don’t tell me he made a smart play. The smart play would have been to slide and give himself up or go out of bounds (since he already picked up a first), NOT intentionally get tackled, risking having the ball stripped or even worse, getting injured. And 9 times out of 10, when a guy can chose between a TD and ending the game, they take a TD in the heat of the moment, especially when you have a chance at breaking the single season TD record. This was truly as unlucky as it could possibly get, and Todd Gurley is official on everyone’s hate list.

https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1056704515490172928

49ers at Cardinals (+3)

Saints at Vikings (+2.5)

Patriots at Bills (+14)

  • Thanks god I didn’t bet Bills, cause I was already heated enough that so many suckers won on that pick six.

2018 Straight-Up: 74-45-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 56-62-3

Fresh slate. Like the card a lot better this week (and I’m not just saying that).

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Raiders at 49ers (+1.5)

  • 49ers 34, Raiders 3
  • 2-0 to start the week, already halfway to last week’s amount of wins against the spread!

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Bears (-10) at Bills

  • Avoid betting this game; the Bears should not be laying 10 points on the road, but the Bills are starting Nathan Peterman
  • Could be a big sucker pick (68% of public on Chicago as of Friday night), but hard to call any pick against Nathan Peterman a sucker pick
  • Take the under in the lowest O/U of the season at 37
  • Bears win a low scoring game and cover because Peterman throwing a pick 6 is inevitable

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Buccaneers at Panthers (-6.5)

  • Another tough pick as Bucs have covered last 2 in Carolina, and nearly won both
  • However, Panthers are playing their best football at the right time
  • Both teams put up high numbers on the scoreboard, but Bucs D is really bad and the Panthers cover

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Chiefs (-9.5) at Browns

  • Chiefs may end up with more public love (84% as of Friday night) than any team in any matchup this season, so this could be a huge sucker pick
  • But I see the Chiefs doing what the Chargers did in Cleveland Week 6
  • The Browns fired their offensive minded head coach, and their offensive coordinator, I can’t see that being very good for a rookie QB
  • Chiefs win in a rout

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Falcons at Redskins (-1.5)

  • Before the bye, Falcons hardly edged out 2 wins at home over two teams (Bucs, Giants) they should easily beat
  • Redskins are hot and have beaten 3 other playoff hopefuls at home this year
  • HOPEFULLY NOT, but Redskins win by a score

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Jets at Dolphins (-2.5)

  • Should be a good game, but hard not to take the better team, at home, not even laying a field goal
  • Jets have impressed this year, but it feels like it’s the time off year they could fall off
  • Dolphins win by a score

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Steelers at Ravens (-2.5)

  • Public loves Steelers (76% as of Friday night) who have won 3 in a row as opposed to the Ravens, who have lost 2 in a row
  • Ravens are much better than their 4-4 record implies, and they handled the Steelers easily in Pittsburgh just a few weeks ago
  • Ravens win by a score

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Lions at Vikings (-5.5)

  • Could be a sucker pick (73% on MIN as of Friday night), but I really like the Vikings here
  • Easy to say the Vikings got dominated at home against the Saints, but that game was never the same after Adam Theilen’s fumble when the Vikings were driving to possibly go up 20-10
  • Vikings don’t crush the Lions, but cover the spread

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Chargers at Seahawks (+1)

  • The Seahawks at getting a point at home, are you kidding me?
  • Seattle has found their identity, and are playing well at the right time
  • The Chargers are 5-2, but their 5 wins are against teams with a combined 10-29-1 record, while their two losses are to the Rams and Chiefs, a combined 15-1
  • The Seahawks win this one easily

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Texans at Broncos (-1)

  • The Texans are a big sucker pick here (73% of public on HOU as of Friday night), they’ve won 5 in a row over 4 sub-.500 teams and one .500 team
  • Broncos have covered in their last 3 games, including vs. the Rams and at the Chiefs
  • Broncos are home and win by a score
  • Also: once again bet over 45.5, as the Broncos played the Chiefs last week. Remember teams who played the Chiefs the prior week are giving up an average of 30.7 PPG (Bengals gave up 34 last week) and the over is 7-0 in these games

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Rams at Saints (+2.5)

  • How are the Saints, who have won 6 in a row, getting points at home?
  • The Rams are 1-3-1 in their last 5 against the spread
  • Saints are arguably as good of a team and getting points at home, they win a close one here

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Packers (+5) at Patriots

  • BIG upset pick of the week here
  • No way the battle of the 2 best QBs over the last 10 years won’t be a thriller
  • Packers could have won at a Rams team that may be better than the Pats
  • Feels like a prime time game where Aaron Rodgers absolutely puts the team on his back
  • Tom Brady has the playoffs success over Rodgers, but Aaron will have the head-to-head success as the Packers edge out a big upset to get their season back on track

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Titans at Cowboys (-5.5)

  • This is an absolute must win for the Cowboys who travel to Philly and Atlanta the next two weeks
  • Cowboys are 3-0 at home, Titans are 1-3 on the road, and didn’t score a TD in the only win
  • Bye week gave the Cowboys extra time to work in Amari Cooper
  • Titans lost 3 in a row prior to their bye
  • Cowboys win and cover in Jason Witten’s return

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Let’s hope I have a few more wins to report next week. Will Amari Cooper turn into the difference maker the Cowboys need offensively?

McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 8

In Week 6, the public won. Slightly. It happens.

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But in Week 7, the public absolutely pummeled us. And it was not even close.

While just simply fading the public is not a guaranteed winning strategy, it’s a winning gamblers’ mindset, especially in games where the public is hammering one side. While the public will win sometimes, weeks like last are as rare as it gets. Teams which at least 60% of the public favored went 6-2, and nearly went 7-1 before the Giants back door covered. As you can imagine, it was my worst week to date. I went 7-7 straight up, and 5-9 against the spread with a few very tough losses. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Broncos at Cardinals (+1)

Titans (+7) at Chargers (London)

Patriots at Bears (+1.5)

Browns at Buccaneers (-3.5) 

  • 3.5 point spreads should be illegal

Texans at Jaguars (-3.5)

Vikings at Jets (+3.5)

Bills (+7) at Colts 

  • Actually ended up fading this pick in my spread pool due to Colin Cowherd saying “Colts -7 could be the bet of the year”. But out of integrity for my original picks I won’t change it on the blog.

Lions (-3) at Dolphins

Panthers (+5) at Eagles

Saints at Ravens (-3)

  • Had this in my pool. This game was headed for OT and possibly a push or win before the most accurate kicker in NFL history missed his first career extra point.

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Cowboys (-1.5) at Redskins

  • Just brutal. Game tying field goal hit the upright after the one of the most bizarre penalty calls I have ever seen.

Rams (-9) at 49ers

Bengals (+6.5) at Chiefs

Giants (+4) at Falcons 

2018 Straight-Up: 65-40-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 54-50-3

Let’s make up for the last two weeks and kill your bookmaker in Week 8.

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Dolphins (+7.5) at Texans

  • Texans 42, Dolphins 23
  • Actually ended up wagering against this pick cause Stu Feiner bet $50K on Texans -7.5. There’s a reason he’s Stu Feiner and I’m fucking not
  • My pick for this blog was Dolphins though, so 1-1 to start the week

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Eagles (-3.5) at Jaguars (London)

  • The public is hammering Eagles, so this could be a huge sucker pick
  • But I have no clue how this spread is so low, as much as the Eagles have struggled, the Jaguars have looked like the Jaguars we have known for so many years the last two weeks
  • Jaguars keep it close in their home away from home, but this spread feels way too low and I’m going with the public and the Eagles

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Broncos at Chiefs (-9.5)

  • Again, another possible sucker pick, but the public has been profiting off the the Chiefs all year, who are 7-0 against the spread
  • Broncos are coming off crushing a terrible team, but they are still a terrible overall road team and this one will be way tougher
  • Chiefs win by 2+ TDs

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Browns (+7.5) at Steelers

  • 6 of Browns’ 7 games have been decided by 4 points or less, and 4 have went to OT
  • Browns are 5-2 against the spread, and one of those two they really blew it against the Raiders to lose by half a point
  • Browns fight to keep it within a score but Steelers win it

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Buccaneers at Bengals (-3.5)

  • Originally picked Bucs +6, but this spread has moved so much that I like Bengals
  • Bengals often fall short against good teams, but do well against teams they are better than at home
  • Bucs keep it close but Bengals win by a score, enough to cover
  • Also: Last week I told you that teams coming off playing the Chiefs are giving up 30 points a game- the Patriots were that team last week and gave up 31 to the Bears
    • The Bengals are that team this week, and the Bucs D stinks, so I love Over 54.5 in this game

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Ravens (-3) at Panthers

  • The Panthers had a great comeback last week, but they were down 17-0, meaning the third straight week we’ve seen sloppy play from them
  • The Ravens are coming off a game great against a great team that they maybe should have won
  • Ravens have been playing better football, I like them to edge this one out

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Redskins at Giants (+1.5)

  • The surprising Redskins are coming off two narrow wins home against two good teams (I say good for Cowboys just because they usually beat the Redskins), and the public absolutely loves them
  • They got crushed the last time they went on the road and it will be a tougher atmosphere than their last two home games
  • The unexpected will happen here and the home Giants will edge out an ugly win

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Jets (+8) at Bears

  • Very easy pick in my mind, this spread is too big and the public is hammering Chicago
  • Both teams have exceeded expectations, and I’d say the Bears have looked more impressive, but the Bears still don’t have “that win” that makes you think they’re in a class above the Jets
  • Jets keep it close, Bears win by a TD or less

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Seahawks at Lions (-3)

  • Lions have won 4 of last 5 and covered in all 5
  • The Lions are a much better home team, and the Seahawks are a much worse road team
  • Easy pick in my mind as the Lions win by a score, but enough to cover

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Colts at Raiders (+3)

  • Public is hammering Colts due to the Raiders dysfunction
  • But the truth is that trading Amari Cooper doesn’t change much for them (this week at least) because he hadn’t been doing anything  for them this season
  • This is one of the Raiders best chances to win this season, they’ll get the upset win at home

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Packers at Rams (-9)

  • Aaron Rodgers getting 9 points against a third year QB shows just how much better the Rams are than the Packers
  • This may be too much of a mismatch for Rodgers to completely put the team on his back
  • Public loves Packers cause this spread seems too big, but the Rams win by 2 TDs

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49ers at Cardinals (+1.5)

  • Two teams who both got crushed at home last week, and the Cardinals had three extra days off and got to stay at home
  • Does public forget the Cardinals easily won in SF 3 weeks ago?
  • Cardinals win a close game here

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Saints at Vikings (+2)

  • Saints have revenge on their mind, but revenge games are much tougher when you don’t have your crowd behind you
  • Saints will have revenge too much on their mind and the home Vikings will be out to show they are just as good as the team that the public loves in this one
  • Not as much of a classic as last time, but the Vikings win a one score game

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Patriots at Bills (+13.5)

  • As bad as the Bills are with a backup QB, there’s no way I’m not taking a team getting 14 points at home against a division rival in prime time
  • The Bills were 17 point underdogs to the Vikings in Week 3- they won that game by 21 points
  • Patriots should win easily, but home Bills will cover this massive spread

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That’s it for Week 8, be back next week for Week 9. Can the Saints avenge one of the greatest miracles in the history of sports?