Category Archives: McGon’s Picks

McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 10

Week 8 was the worst week of picks I’ve ever had.

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But as for Week 9? Right back on track.

While this week could have been much better had I not lost 4 of my last 5, just about anything was going to be better than my abysmal Week 8. I went 7-6, both outright and against the spread. I was sitting very strong at 6-2 through the early games before I struggled with the later ones. Here’s a look bad at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Raiders at 49ers (+1.5)

Bears (-10) at Bills

Buccaneers at Panthers (-6)

Chiefs (-9) at Browns

Falcons at Redskins (-1.5)

  • Was very happy to be incorrect here.

Jets at Dolphins (-3)

Steelers at Ravens (-1.5)

Lions at Vikings (-5)

Chargers at Seahawks (Pick ‘Em)

Texans at Broncos (-1)

  • Absolutely brutal loss as the field goal for the outright win and push against the spread missed. Also the first time this year that the over didn’t hit in a game where one of the teams (Broncos) played the Chiefs the week prior. Over 46.5 was looking great when the Broncos went up 17-16 early in the 3rd, but all we got was 3 more points the rest of the way.

Rams at Saints (+2)

Packers (+5) at Patriots

Titans at Cowboys (-4)

  • Not gonna talk about how horrible the rest of this game was, just gonna note how different the game could’ve been had the Cowboys taken advantage early. Maher misses a 38 yarder and Dak throws a bad INT, the Cowboys could have been up 17-0 easily. The game was never the same from there and it fucking sucked. Oh well. At least I won my fantasy game over an Amari Cooper owner by .2 (sorry Tucc).

2018 Straight-Up: 81-51-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 63-68-3

Ready to roll into Week 10.

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Panthers at Steelers (-3.5) 

  •  Steelers 52, Panthers 21 
  •  Well, that was easy. 2-0 to start the week!

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Bills at Jets (-7)

  • No spread is too big when facing Nathan Peterman
  • Josh McCown starting for the Jets, could be better than Sam Darnold would have been in this game (veteran playing one game vs. rookie QB)
  • Jets win easily

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Saints at Bengals (+6)

  • Even minus AJ Green, the Bengals are strong enough of a home team to make this too many points
  • Public hammering Saints who are coming off two very hard fought games against very good teams, could look past the Bengals
  • Bengals coming off bye
  • Saints win by less than a score and Bengals cover

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Patriots at Titans (+7)

  • Public hammering red hot Pats
  • Easy to forget but Patriots beat the Titans in last year’s playoffs- home revenge game for the Titans
  • Also a lot of familiarity with the Pats for the Titans in Dion Lewis, Malcolm Butler, and head coach Mike Vrabel
  • Titans build off Monday night to keep it close and cover but Patriots win

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Cardinals at Chiefs (-16.5)

  • The difference between this and the Vikings 17 point spread against the Bills is we know a lot more about these teams then we did about MIN/BUF in Week 3, and the Chiefs are much more consistent than the Vikings
  • Really nothing much else to say besides I think Mahomes and the Chiefs explode against the young Cardinals at home to cover in a rout

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Redskins at Buccaneers (-3)

  • After two wins against weak offenses, Redskins fell flat on their face at home against a good offense
  • Redskins may be too banged up to keep this strong play up
  • Gunslinger Fitzy and the Bucs win a high scoring game

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Lions (+7) at Bears 

  • The Bears are the better team this year, but the Lions have been beating up on the Bears for years- they’ve won 9 of the last 10 in this matchup
  • Lions undervalued after bad performances against better teams the last two weeks
  • Lions keep it close to cover but Bears win by a field goal

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Falcons at Browns (+6)

  • Public hammering Falcons and spread has moved from -4 to -6 after last week’s blowout win
  • Browns offense played better than expected last week, did not get blown out nearly as bad as most thought they would vs. Chiefs
  • Second game under Greg Williams against a similar but less talented team as the Chiefs, I think the Browns cover but the Falcons win
  • Also: not gonna let last week’s loss discourage me. Browns played the Chiefs last week- bet over 51. They gave a shoutout to this stat I have been telling you all about for a few weeks now on Pardon My Take

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Jaguars (+3) at Colts

  • Jaguars played a little better the week before the bye- there’s no way the 2017 Jaguars are not possible of breaking out
  • Granted they were much better and Luck was out, but the Jaguars pummeled the Colts in both matchups last year
  • Jags look a little stronger off the bye and pull the upset in Indy

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Chargers at Raiders (+10)

  • Look I’m not saying this is a great pick, but hear me out
  • Raiders are coming off a game in which people are saying they quit, expect a better performance in front of their home crowd
  • Public hammering Chargers
  • Teams who lost the previous week on Thursday Night Football are 6-2 against the spread
  • Chargers win easily but Raiders show some fight and cover the big spread

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Dolphins (+10) at Packers

  • Packers are coming off two road games against very good teams, could easily look past this home game against the Dolphins
  • Niners covered similar spread in Green Bay a few weeks ago, and the Dolphins are much better than the Niners
  • Packers win but Dolphins cover this large number

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Seahawks (+9.5) at Rams

  • Seahawks had a down week last week, but I’m still convinced they’re a good team, and they always play teams tough
  • Rams are 1-4-1 in their last 6 against the spread, and the majority of their games have been close this year
  • Haven’t heard this, but have to assume the 12th Man will be taking over LA
  • Rams are the better team and win by a TD, but the Seahawks cover

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Cowboys (+7) at Eagles

  • “Oh Mike come on the Cowboys suck, the Eagles are home and in prime time, this is a obvious blowout” is what 82% of the public (as of Thursday night) is saying right now
  • The Cowboys looked real bad last week, but what have the Eagles done? They’ve underperformed all year, and while the bye may help, people are acting like they’re back on track after hardly edging out the Jaguars, who the Cowboys beat 40-7
  • Every Eagles game besides the one against the Giants has been decided by a score or less
  • Cowboys show some pride after last week’s performance and keep it close, but the better team at home gets the win

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Giants at 49ers (-3.5)

  • I don’t see myself taking the Giants ever again
  • Giants may be coming off the bye, but the Niners are coming off a Thursday night game, not too much of a difference
  • I don’t like to overreact to blowout wins, but there was a certain feeling last week about what the Niners did that has me thinking they’ll grind out a few wins to end the season
  • Niners win by a TD

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See you in Week 11. Who wins the 3rd Dak-Wentz Sunday Night battle?

McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 9

I’ll start off by posting pictures of where I went right last week…

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…cause their isn’t too much to show.

I’ll start off where things went right. You all know I care a lot more my spread picks than my outright picks, but I actually did well straight up. I went 9-5, and if for some crazy reason you bet every single one of my outright picks, you would have made a profit.

But even an amazing outright week wouldn’t have made up for my performance against the spread. I posted a lifetime worst 2-12 record. Yup. It was bad. REALLLLLLY bad. And I apologize. My picks last week were really no bueno. I’ll be better. I made some bad picks, but saw some very unfortunate luck that turned what would have been a bad week into a horrific week. Along with some comments on the madness, here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Dolphins (+7.5) at Texans 

Eagles (-4) at Jaguars (London)

Broncos at Chiefs (-9)

  • Finally gave into the public and the Chiefs, and they don’t cover for the first time this season. Nearly stole this one on a late field goal, but Andy Reid decided to pin the Broncos in instead of take a 49 yard field. Cause he has no respect for the spread!

Browns (+8.5) at Steelers

Buccaneers at Bengals (-3.5)

  • Sometimes, your pick is so right that the other team has to switch QBs, and your team was not prepared to face that QB so they stage a comeback. Killer non-cover by the Bengals here. And once again, 3.5 point spreads should be illegal. At least I was right about taking the over.

Ravens (-2.5) at Panthers

Redskins at Giants (+1)

Jets (+8) at Bears

Seahawks at Lions (-3)

Colts at Raiders (+3.5)

Packers at Rams (-7.5)

  • Look, I wagered on this game and watched most of it, but I’ll be the first to admit the Rams did not deserve to cover in this game. They really did not play the better football in this game, and the Ty Montgomery fumble is what gave them covering life. Sometimes you just have to get lucky. However, what went down next was arguably the biggest crime in sports gambling history. Look, if Todd Gurley scored the TD, the odds are highly unlikely, but the Rams could potentially miss the extra point, and the Packers COULD potentially score a TD and get the 2 point conversion to tie the game (there are 30 seconds on the clock). So he was not wrong for deciding to not score. However, don’t tell me he made a smart play. The smart play would have been to slide and give himself up or go out of bounds (since he already picked up a first), NOT intentionally get tackled, risking having the ball stripped or even worse, getting injured. And 9 times out of 10, when a guy can chose between a TD and ending the game, they take a TD in the heat of the moment, especially when you have a chance at breaking the single season TD record. This was truly as unlucky as it could possibly get, and Todd Gurley is official on everyone’s hate list.

https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1056704515490172928

49ers at Cardinals (+3)

Saints at Vikings (+2.5)

Patriots at Bills (+14)

  • Thanks god I didn’t bet Bills, cause I was already heated enough that so many suckers won on that pick six.

2018 Straight-Up: 74-45-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 56-62-3

Fresh slate. Like the card a lot better this week (and I’m not just saying that).

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Raiders at 49ers (+1.5)

  • 49ers 34, Raiders 3
  • 2-0 to start the week, already halfway to last week’s amount of wins against the spread!

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Bears (-10) at Bills

  • Avoid betting this game; the Bears should not be laying 10 points on the road, but the Bills are starting Nathan Peterman
  • Could be a big sucker pick (68% of public on Chicago as of Friday night), but hard to call any pick against Nathan Peterman a sucker pick
  • Take the under in the lowest O/U of the season at 37
  • Bears win a low scoring game and cover because Peterman throwing a pick 6 is inevitable

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Buccaneers at Panthers (-6.5)

  • Another tough pick as Bucs have covered last 2 in Carolina, and nearly won both
  • However, Panthers are playing their best football at the right time
  • Both teams put up high numbers on the scoreboard, but Bucs D is really bad and the Panthers cover

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Chiefs (-9.5) at Browns

  • Chiefs may end up with more public love (84% as of Friday night) than any team in any matchup this season, so this could be a huge sucker pick
  • But I see the Chiefs doing what the Chargers did in Cleveland Week 6
  • The Browns fired their offensive minded head coach, and their offensive coordinator, I can’t see that being very good for a rookie QB
  • Chiefs win in a rout

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Falcons at Redskins (-1.5)

  • Before the bye, Falcons hardly edged out 2 wins at home over two teams (Bucs, Giants) they should easily beat
  • Redskins are hot and have beaten 3 other playoff hopefuls at home this year
  • HOPEFULLY NOT, but Redskins win by a score

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Jets at Dolphins (-2.5)

  • Should be a good game, but hard not to take the better team, at home, not even laying a field goal
  • Jets have impressed this year, but it feels like it’s the time off year they could fall off
  • Dolphins win by a score

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Steelers at Ravens (-2.5)

  • Public loves Steelers (76% as of Friday night) who have won 3 in a row as opposed to the Ravens, who have lost 2 in a row
  • Ravens are much better than their 4-4 record implies, and they handled the Steelers easily in Pittsburgh just a few weeks ago
  • Ravens win by a score

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Lions at Vikings (-5.5)

  • Could be a sucker pick (73% on MIN as of Friday night), but I really like the Vikings here
  • Easy to say the Vikings got dominated at home against the Saints, but that game was never the same after Adam Theilen’s fumble when the Vikings were driving to possibly go up 20-10
  • Vikings don’t crush the Lions, but cover the spread

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Chargers at Seahawks (+1)

  • The Seahawks at getting a point at home, are you kidding me?
  • Seattle has found their identity, and are playing well at the right time
  • The Chargers are 5-2, but their 5 wins are against teams with a combined 10-29-1 record, while their two losses are to the Rams and Chiefs, a combined 15-1
  • The Seahawks win this one easily

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Texans at Broncos (-1)

  • The Texans are a big sucker pick here (73% of public on HOU as of Friday night), they’ve won 5 in a row over 4 sub-.500 teams and one .500 team
  • Broncos have covered in their last 3 games, including vs. the Rams and at the Chiefs
  • Broncos are home and win by a score
  • Also: once again bet over 45.5, as the Broncos played the Chiefs last week. Remember teams who played the Chiefs the prior week are giving up an average of 30.7 PPG (Bengals gave up 34 last week) and the over is 7-0 in these games

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Rams at Saints (+2.5)

  • How are the Saints, who have won 6 in a row, getting points at home?
  • The Rams are 1-3-1 in their last 5 against the spread
  • Saints are arguably as good of a team and getting points at home, they win a close one here

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Packers (+5) at Patriots

  • BIG upset pick of the week here
  • No way the battle of the 2 best QBs over the last 10 years won’t be a thriller
  • Packers could have won at a Rams team that may be better than the Pats
  • Feels like a prime time game where Aaron Rodgers absolutely puts the team on his back
  • Tom Brady has the playoffs success over Rodgers, but Aaron will have the head-to-head success as the Packers edge out a big upset to get their season back on track

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Titans at Cowboys (-5.5)

  • This is an absolute must win for the Cowboys who travel to Philly and Atlanta the next two weeks
  • Cowboys are 3-0 at home, Titans are 1-3 on the road, and didn’t score a TD in the only win
  • Bye week gave the Cowboys extra time to work in Amari Cooper
  • Titans lost 3 in a row prior to their bye
  • Cowboys win and cover in Jason Witten’s return

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Let’s hope I have a few more wins to report next week. Will Amari Cooper turn into the difference maker the Cowboys need offensively?

McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 8

In Week 6, the public won. Slightly. It happens.

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But in Week 7, the public absolutely pummeled us. And it was not even close.

While just simply fading the public is not a guaranteed winning strategy, it’s a winning gamblers’ mindset, especially in games where the public is hammering one side. While the public will win sometimes, weeks like last are as rare as it gets. Teams which at least 60% of the public favored went 6-2, and nearly went 7-1 before the Giants back door covered. As you can imagine, it was my worst week to date. I went 7-7 straight up, and 5-9 against the spread with a few very tough losses. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Broncos at Cardinals (+1)

Titans (+7) at Chargers (London)

Patriots at Bears (+1.5)

Browns at Buccaneers (-3.5) 

  • 3.5 point spreads should be illegal

Texans at Jaguars (-3.5)

Vikings at Jets (+3.5)

Bills (+7) at Colts 

  • Actually ended up fading this pick in my spread pool due to Colin Cowherd saying “Colts -7 could be the bet of the year”. But out of integrity for my original picks I won’t change it on the blog.

Lions (-3) at Dolphins

Panthers (+5) at Eagles

Saints at Ravens (-3)

  • Had this in my pool. This game was headed for OT and possibly a push or win before the most accurate kicker in NFL history missed his first career extra point.

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Cowboys (-1.5) at Redskins

  • Just brutal. Game tying field goal hit the upright after the one of the most bizarre penalty calls I have ever seen.

Rams (-9) at 49ers

Bengals (+6.5) at Chiefs

Giants (+4) at Falcons 

2018 Straight-Up: 65-40-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 54-50-3

Let’s make up for the last two weeks and kill your bookmaker in Week 8.

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Dolphins (+7.5) at Texans

  • Texans 42, Dolphins 23
  • Actually ended up wagering against this pick cause Stu Feiner bet $50K on Texans -7.5. There’s a reason he’s Stu Feiner and I’m fucking not
  • My pick for this blog was Dolphins though, so 1-1 to start the week

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Eagles (-3.5) at Jaguars (London)

  • The public is hammering Eagles, so this could be a huge sucker pick
  • But I have no clue how this spread is so low, as much as the Eagles have struggled, the Jaguars have looked like the Jaguars we have known for so many years the last two weeks
  • Jaguars keep it close in their home away from home, but this spread feels way too low and I’m going with the public and the Eagles

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Broncos at Chiefs (-9.5)

  • Again, another possible sucker pick, but the public has been profiting off the the Chiefs all year, who are 7-0 against the spread
  • Broncos are coming off crushing a terrible team, but they are still a terrible overall road team and this one will be way tougher
  • Chiefs win by 2+ TDs

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Browns (+7.5) at Steelers

  • 6 of Browns’ 7 games have been decided by 4 points or less, and 4 have went to OT
  • Browns are 5-2 against the spread, and one of those two they really blew it against the Raiders to lose by half a point
  • Browns fight to keep it within a score but Steelers win it

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Buccaneers at Bengals (-3.5)

  • Originally picked Bucs +6, but this spread has moved so much that I like Bengals
  • Bengals often fall short against good teams, but do well against teams they are better than at home
  • Bucs keep it close but Bengals win by a score, enough to cover
  • Also: Last week I told you that teams coming off playing the Chiefs are giving up 30 points a game- the Patriots were that team last week and gave up 31 to the Bears
    • The Bengals are that team this week, and the Bucs D stinks, so I love Over 54.5 in this game

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Ravens (-3) at Panthers

  • The Panthers had a great comeback last week, but they were down 17-0, meaning the third straight week we’ve seen sloppy play from them
  • The Ravens are coming off a game great against a great team that they maybe should have won
  • Ravens have been playing better football, I like them to edge this one out

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Redskins at Giants (+1.5)

  • The surprising Redskins are coming off two narrow wins home against two good teams (I say good for Cowboys just because they usually beat the Redskins), and the public absolutely loves them
  • They got crushed the last time they went on the road and it will be a tougher atmosphere than their last two home games
  • The unexpected will happen here and the home Giants will edge out an ugly win

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Jets (+8) at Bears

  • Very easy pick in my mind, this spread is too big and the public is hammering Chicago
  • Both teams have exceeded expectations, and I’d say the Bears have looked more impressive, but the Bears still don’t have “that win” that makes you think they’re in a class above the Jets
  • Jets keep it close, Bears win by a TD or less

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Seahawks at Lions (-3)

  • Lions have won 4 of last 5 and covered in all 5
  • The Lions are a much better home team, and the Seahawks are a much worse road team
  • Easy pick in my mind as the Lions win by a score, but enough to cover

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Colts at Raiders (+3)

  • Public is hammering Colts due to the Raiders dysfunction
  • But the truth is that trading Amari Cooper doesn’t change much for them (this week at least) because he hadn’t been doing anything  for them this season
  • This is one of the Raiders best chances to win this season, they’ll get the upset win at home

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Packers at Rams (-9)

  • Aaron Rodgers getting 9 points against a third year QB shows just how much better the Rams are than the Packers
  • This may be too much of a mismatch for Rodgers to completely put the team on his back
  • Public loves Packers cause this spread seems too big, but the Rams win by 2 TDs

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49ers at Cardinals (+1.5)

  • Two teams who both got crushed at home last week, and the Cardinals had three extra days off and got to stay at home
  • Does public forget the Cardinals easily won in SF 3 weeks ago?
  • Cardinals win a close game here

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Saints at Vikings (+2)

  • Saints have revenge on their mind, but revenge games are much tougher when you don’t have your crowd behind you
  • Saints will have revenge too much on their mind and the home Vikings will be out to show they are just as good as the team that the public loves in this one
  • Not as much of a classic as last time, but the Vikings win a one score game

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Patriots at Bills (+13.5)

  • As bad as the Bills are with a backup QB, there’s no way I’m not taking a team getting 14 points at home against a division rival in prime time
  • The Bills were 17 point underdogs to the Vikings in Week 3- they won that game by 21 points
  • Patriots should win easily, but home Bills will cover this massive spread

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That’s it for Week 8, be back next week for Week 9. Can the Saints avenge one of the greatest miracles in the history of sports?

McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 7

Some weeks, there’s a reason it’s called gambling, not winning…

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…cause the public actually won.

In Week 5, I faded every team getting more than 60% of the public’s vote, and went 6-2 in those games. In Week 6, the same strategy went just 4-5. Don’t think Week 5 was just a fluke though- fading teams getting public love is a proven effective strategy, but just like any gambling strategy, there’s gonna be some weeks it doesn’t work. Overall, it was an average week on both fronts, starting terribly but ending strong. I went 8-7 straight up, and 7-8 against the spread. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Eagles at Giants (+2)

Seahawks at Raiders (+3) (London)

Colts (+2.5) at Jets

Chargers at Browns (Pick ‘Em)

Bears at Dolphins (+7) 

  • This spread changed when Ryan Tannehill was announced as out, the spread adjusted a lot. I kept my Dolphins spread pick but switched to Bears outright.

Buccaneers (+3) at Falcons

Cardinals at Vikings (-9.5)

Bills at Texans (-10)

Steelers at Bengals (-1.5)

Panthers at Redskins (+1)

Rams at Broncos (+7)

Ravens (-2.5) at Titans

Jaguars at Cowboys (+3)

Chiefs at Patriots (-4)

49ers (+9) at Packers

2018 Straight-Up: 58-33-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 49-41-3

Time for some winners, winners, WINNERS in Week 7.

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Broncos at Cardinals (+1.5)

  • Broncos 45, Cardinals 10
  • 0-2 to start the week

Titans (+6.5) at Chargers (London)

  • Titans are coming off a 20+ point loss, which leads to being undervalued by the public
  • Titans really are not bad and the Chargers are not that good, so this spread is too big, especially for a neutral sited game
  • Chargers win by a field goal

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Patriots at Bears (+3)

  • Upset pick of the week
  • Public loves the road Patriots who appear to have found their groove in 3 straight home games
  • Crazy stat I heard on a Cowboys podcast I listen to, teams who play the Chiefs are giving up an average of 30 points the following week
  • I like the home Bears defense to play well, and combining that with the stat above, I have the Bears getting the win

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Browns at Buccaneers (-3.5)

  • Bucs offense has been incredible this year
  • Browns still winless on the road
  • Big matchup between 2 teams aiming to prove they can compete this year
  • Public vote implies this could be a sucker pick, but I think the Bucs are the better team, at home, and this is a low spread
  • Gonna post this gif every time I pick the Bucs

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Texans at Jaguars (-4)

  • Jaguars are returning home after 2 brutal performances on the road
  • Texans have won 3 in a row, but they were favored in all 3 and none of them were particularly impressive
  • Let’s not act like the Jags are suddenly bad, they had down weeks last year too
  • Jags return home and win by 2 scores

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Vikings at Jets (+3.5)

  • Another upset pick
  • Jets have beaten the public the last two weeks at home, good things come in threes
  • Vikings are an elite team but are vulnerable, and they didn’t look too hot the last time they played an AFC East team
  • Darnold and the Jets pull off another one at Metlife

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Bills (+7) at Colts

  • Nathan Peterman is not starting- a good thing for Buffalo
  • Colts tend to play to their competition, whether good or bad
  • Colts win, but by less than a TD

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Lions (-3) at Dolphins

  • Lions looked strong in both weeks leading up to their bye
  • The Brocketship won’t be able to put together two wins in a row
  • Lions win by a score, and enough to cover

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Panthers (+4.5) at Eagles 

  • Panthers are better than what they’ve shown the last two weeks = undervalued
  • Eagles finally played well, but it was against the Giants
  • I think these two teams are pretty even, so I have the home Eagles edging it out with the Panthers covering

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Saints at Ravens (-3)

  • Easy pick in my mind
  • Public loves Saints, probably for any of the million reasons:
    • Offense is hot
    • Just won big on Monday Night Football then had a bye
    • Drew Brees, a very likeable and accomplished QB, just became the NFL’s all time leading passer, and everyone still has that on their mind
    • The Saints are better compared to the NFC than the Ravens are compared to the AFC
  • Buttttttt, the Ravens are hot too, and at home
  • I love the idea of a hot defense at home against a hot team that may be cooled off by their bye, Ravens win this one

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Cowboys (+1) at Redskins

  • The Cowboys have not won on the road, but I feel as though last week could be a turning point
  • The public is not favoring the Redskins, but they are in first and it feels like one of those games where they come in with an “edge” after a big home win, only to lay a dud at home the next week
  • Cowboys defense is on the edge of premier status, and if their offense can play even a fraction of how they played against what EVERYONE considers the “best defense in the NFL”, then they are undoubtedly the better team here and should win this game

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Rams (-9.5) at 49ers

  • Rams may have won the last two games on the road, but by just a total of 5 points- they’re due for a big performance
  • Shorthanded Niners have been undervalued in both road games without Jimmy G, but were clearly overvalued in their only home game against the lowly Cardinals
  • Rams break out the offense to win AND cover the big road spread

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Bengals (+5.5) at Chiefs

  • Chiefs are 6-0 against the spread, and have edged out very close spread wins 2 of the last 3 weeks
  • This is gonna be a high scoring game
  • As good as Mahomes and the Chiefs are, I feel this is too many points for a defense this bad to be giving
  • Chiefs control the game but Bengals get some late points on a prevent defense to cover

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Giants (+4) at Falcons

  • I see this game going very similarly to the Giants game against the Panthers
  • 5 of Falcons 6 games have been decided by a TD or less
  • Giants are on extra rest and have been absolutely crushed in the media with the extra time
  • Public loves Falcons, I think Giants keep it close to cover but the Falcons win by a field goal

That’s all for Week 7, be back for Week 8 after this 14-0 week. Will the Giants get some better fortunes on the road in the NFC South this time?

 

McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 6

Last week, 8 teams were getting 60% or more of the public’s vote. I recommended fading every single one…

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…and I went 6-2 in those games.

If what I just implied was not clear: FADE THE PUBLIC. Week 5 was another strong week in what has been an improved season to this point. I went 9-5-1 against the spread, and 10-5 straight up. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red, push in green):

Colts (+10.5) at Patriots

Jaguars at Chiefs (-3)

Packers at Lions (-1.5)

Titans at Bills (+6.5)

Dolphins (+6) at Bengals

Ravens at Browns (+3.5)

Giants (+6.5) at Panthers

Broncos at Jets (Pick ‘Em)

Falcons (+3.5) at Steelers

Raiders at Chargers (-5.5)

Rams at Seahawks (+7.5)

Cardinals at 49ers (-3)

Vikings at Eagles (-3.5)

Cowboys (+3) at Texans

Redskins at Saints (-5.5)

2018 Straight-Up: 51-25-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 42-33-3

Time to kill your bookmaker in Week 6.

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Eagles at Giants (+2)

  • Eagles 34, Giants 13
  • I was in attendance, cheered for the Giants, it was not a fun game
  • 0-2 to start the week

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Seahawks at Raiders (+2.5) (London)

  • Crazy time difference for both teams so I think it’s gonna be a weird game
  • This may be a neutral site, but the Seahawks are notably not the same away from home
  • I think Marshawn Lynch has a day against his former team and the Raiders pull off the upset in London

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Colts (+2) at Jets

  • We all know the Jets; they rarely put two great performances together in a row
  • Andrew Luck is quietly putting up numbers again
  • The Colts are on extra rest, I think they go in and win

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Chargers at Browns (-1)

  • Public loves a Chargers team (57% as of Friday night) that is much more proven and stronger on paper
  • Browns have show strength on both sides of the ball with high and low scoring games (you could probably argue that’s also a weakness, but you have to focus on Browns positives when they rarely come about)
  • Browns have covered last two against Chargers including their only win of 2016

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Bears at Dolphins (+3.5)

  • Not a lock, but a very easy pick to make in my mind
  • Public loves Bears (60% as of Friday night) who are off to a hot start and coming off their bye
  • Dolphins were comfortably beating a good Bengals team on the road
  • Public implies Bears is a big sucker bet, Dolphins get the upset win

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Buccaneers (+3) at Falcons

  • Upset pick of the week
  • Falcons defense cannot stop anyone right now
  • Jameis Winston’s team again, I think they edge out a high scoring win on the road

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Cardinals at Vikings (-10)

  • Vikings have found their groove once again since the Bills disaster
  • They’ll return home to crush the Cardinals
  • This could be a sucker bet, but I really think they’re gonna crush them

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Bills at Texans (-10)

  • This is a lot of points, but the Texans are starting to play better
  • Public loves Buffalo (63% as of Friday night) and the points, I see the Bills keeping it close but the Texans will pull away late to cover

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Steelers at Bengals (-1.5)

  • This matchup in Cincinnati is always close
  • Public loves Pittsburgh (65% as of Friday night), the team that usually takes this matchup
  • Steelers dropped a dud after their last win
  • Bengals looked great in the second half against the Dolphins, I think they ride that momentum and edge this one out

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Panthers at Redskins (+1)

  • This could not feel more like the Redskins Week 3 matchup against the Packers
  • Public loves Carolina (70% as of Friday night) after the Skins got crushed on national TV
  • Panthers exposed last week against lowly Giants, they’ll have the down week they’re due for and the Redskins will win

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Rams at Broncos (+7)

  • SO similar to Rams @ Seahawks last week
  • Similar spread, tough road venue for LA, and the public loves the Rams (59% as of Friday night)
  • The Rams will win by less than a score again

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Ravens (-2.5) at Titans

  • First off, I’m shocked the public loves the Titans (68% as of Friday night) after their loss to the Bills
  • The Ravens are an up and down team, they’ll look strong again after a bad performance against the Browns

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Jaguars at Cowboys (+3.5)

  • Trust me, this is not a biased pick, I will acknowledge that the Jags are a much better team
  • I’m simply fading “what should happen” because this feels like one of those games where every single person thinks they know how this game will go, aka the Cowboys will not be able to score any points against this Jags D
  • The Jaguars offense is struggling and the Cowboys defense is not, I see the home Cowboys edging out an ugly, low scoring win at home
  • Oh, and Romo is calling the game. LOCK.

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Chiefs at Patriots (-3)

  • Chiefs are due for a bit of a let down week
  • Pats are finding their groove
  • Patriots always win at home when a lot of people think they may get upset
  • Pats will win and cover in a close one

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49ers (+9.5) at Packers

  • Packers are clearly in a funk
  • Jimmy G-less 49ers have a good track record of close losses on the road
  • Packers will win by a TD or less

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That’s it for this week, be back for Week 7. Who take the most anticipated matchup of the season Sunday night?

 

McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 5

In Week 4, the Cowboys did not cover…

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…but they won the game. And that’s all that really matters.

And telling you who will win is what I have been doing best this year. We all know it’s a lot easier to say who’s going to win the game than who’s going to cover, but some weeks prove that nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. While they were not bad, my numbers against the spread were not as good as they were in Weeks 2 and 3 as I went 7-7-1. However, I continued a strong outright season going 11-4 straight up. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red, push in green):

Vikings (+7) at Rams

Lions at Cowboys (-2.5)

Buccaneers (+2.5) at Bears

Dolphins at Patriots (-6.5)

Bengals at Falcons (-3)

Bills at Packers (-8.5)

Texans (-1) at Colts

  • Absolutely terrible beat for anyone who had Colts +1 with the call to go for it on 4th down instead of punt and tie.

Jets (+7) at Jaguars

Eagles at Titans (+3)

  • Suck it, suckers (the 73% of the public that took Eagles -3)!

Browns at Raiders (-2.5)

Cardinals (+3.5) at Seahawks

Saints (-3) at Giants

49ers at Chargers (-10)

  • Not using this an excuse, but did not consider at all that it would basically be a home game for the Niners.

Ravens at Steelers (-3)

Chiefs at Broncos (+3.5)

  • Terrible beat with the Broncos blowing a 10 point lead to miss the cover by half a point.

2018 Straight-Up: 41-20-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 33-28-2

The second quarter of the season is underway.

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Colts (+10.5) at Patriots

  • Patriots 38, Colts 24
  • 1-1 to start the week.

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Jaguars at Chiefs (-3)

  • Massive contest this Sunday between the two most impressive AFC teams so far this season. Expect a great game between one of the the leagues best offenses and one of the leagues best defenses. While I believe this Chiefs team won’t falter the way past Chiefs teams have, I feel they are due for a let down soon. But not this week. The Jaguars have looked dominant one week and then average the next so far this year. After a great performance against the Jets, I think the Jags come down to Earth a little and the home Chiefs take advantage.

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Packers at Lions (Pick ‘Em)

  • Be prepared, cause this is the first of many underdogs I feel have great value this week. This may be a pick ’em now, but the Packers were favored by a point, and then the line moved in the Lions direction despite the public hammering Packers. The Packers seem to be in a disarray, but Rodgers has still been dominant in his career against the Lions. Them only being a one point favorite to open feels like a trap, so I’m taking the home Lions.

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Titans at Bills (+5.5)

  • The Titans are 3-1, and have taken down two of the best teams in the NFL from a year ago over the last two weeks. NO WONDER the public is hammering Titans, who somehow only opened as a 3 point favorite. The Titans are a bad road team, and I know you’ll say they beat the Jaguars on the road, but they still only scored 9 points in that game. They will edge out a W in a shitty game, but the home Bills will cover.

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Dolphins (+6) at Bengals

  • A big “prove if you’re for real game” here. The Bengals have been the much more impressive 3-1 team, but it’s a big test to see if they can follow up that amazing victory last weekend. As for the Dolphins, they are looking to prove they are still a Wild Card contender and that last week happened because they always lose in New England. I think the Dolphins fight hard to cover, but the Bengals edge out the win at home.

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Ravens at Browns (+3)

  • The Ravens just went on the road to a much better divisional opponent and won by 12. This should be a blowout, right? As of Friday, 79% of the public think so. But last week was a huge game for the Ravens, and this could be a matchup they look past. The Browns offense looks good for the first time in, well, forever, and I think the Browns catch the Ravens off guard and score the upset at home.

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Giants (+6.5) at Panthers

  • Through 3 games, the 2-1 Panthers have looked pretty predictable as to how their games would go so far. However, anyone who has watched the NFL over the past two seasons knows just how inconsistent and unpredictable they are. Following a bye, I think the Giants can catch the Panthers off guard a bit and play a little better than they have and cover. But the Giants are so much worse, so there’s no shot in hell I’m going against the Panthers to win.

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Broncos at Jets (+1) 

  • The Broncos should have beaten the loaded Chiefs, and the Jets have not looked good at all since Week 1, so this is a lock for Denver, right? Wrong. The Broncos suffered an absolute heartbreaker on Monday night, and now have to travel across the country on a short week. Based on last year and the one game this year, I’m sticking to the idea that the Broncos are a really bad road team. The Jets will get the win in this one.

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Falcons (+3) at Steelers

  • As the guys from Pardon My Take would say “loser leaves town game” between two struggling teams who entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations. I’ve been going back and forth like crazy on this, but ultimately settled on Falcons. It’s easy to say the Falcons have looked bad, but the truth is they could easily be 4-0 instead of 1-3. The Steelers problems are much more clear, and I think the Falcons edge out a high scoring upset in Pittsburgh.

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Raiders at Chargers (-5.5)

  • Expect a great game between these division rivals Sunday. These teams always seem to play close ones, and you have to think Raider Nation is gonna invade the soccer stadium in LA. However, I see this one going similar to every Raider game. A close game in the 4th, until they Chargers pull away late to win and cover.

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Rams at Seahawks (+7.5)

  • I know you can easily say the Rams beat the Seahawks 42-7 in Seattle last year, but the idea of the Seahawks getting 7 points at home is crazy. I think the Cowboys game was good proof that the Seahawks will be much better at home this year, and the Seahawks have not been this big of underdogs at home in awhile. With the public hammering LA, give me the Seahawks, but with the Rams still winning by a field goal.

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Cardinals at 49ers (-4)

  • While they were 1-10 before Jimmy G took over last year, it’s easy to forget how many close games that Niners team lost. So while they are bad, expect some wins/covers. This one feels like a trap. 4 points against a Cardinals team that nearly beat the Bears and Seahawks? I’ll take it. The Cardinals will look poor on the road with rookie QB Josh Rosen and the 49ers will take care of business at home.

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Vikings at Eagles (-3)

  • Well what do you know? I finally took the Eagles. A slow start in Philly and a team they crushed last year coming to town with the doubters coming in on the Eagles, it feels like a perfect time for those scumbags to take out their stupid dog masks and pull out a home win. In all seriousness though, I think the key matchup for Philly will be their strong DLine dominating the Vikings OLine, and whether we see an average or great Carson Wentz, the Eagles will still get the win.

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Cowboys (+3) at Texans

  • I’ve said this before, but take any of my Cowboys picks with an asterisk, as I obviously know much more about them than any team and have confidence that an unbiased fan does not. That being said, this is an absolutely massive game to build off of the offensive success that they finally found last week. The Texans are very lucky to have a win, and I see Dak being able to find success against the 31st ranked pass defense in the NFL. 3 points is too much for a 1-3 team to be giving, so I think the Cowboys will score the upset in the Battle for Texas Sunday night.

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Redskins at Saints (-6.5)

  • These two teams played an OT contest in New Orleans last year, so don’t be shocked if the Redskins put up a great fight. However, I see this game as an easy win for the Saints. Drew Brees will become the NFL’s all time leading passer, and the Redskins will come out a little flat following their bye and the Saints will beat the R-Words at home by two scores.

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Lets see if this weekend is as full of upsets as I am predicting. Will the Vikings get the revenge that the Falcons couldn’t?

McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 4

Most fans have hated the matchups we have seen on Thursday nights for years…

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…but one night made up for all the shitty ones. I can’t remember a time ever where the Thursday night matchup felt more important than any other matchup the entire weekend. I like the Jets and normally root for them, but that was arguably the most I have ever rooted for a team that was not mine or was not facing a team I hated. Between Hard Knocks, having a player I’ve known of since he was a freshman in high school in Jabrill Peppers, and visiting there to see the Cowboys play in 2016, the Browns have become a random team I’ve paid attention to over the past few years. You can argue that they are one of the more famous teams in the league just cause they are so consistently bad. Winning their first game in nearly two years at home in prime time just felt meant to be and was awesome to watch.

As for the picks, it was a second straight week of success. I went 10-6 straight up, but more importantly, improved to 11-5 against the spread. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Jets at Browns (-3)

Bengals at Panthers (-3)

Saints at Falcons (-1.5)

  • Only loss in my spread pool (also took Ravens, Colts, Redskins, and Dolphins).

Titans at Jaguars (-10)

  • As the source Stu Feiner would say “sucker pick” as 70% of the public was on the Jags after their national TV win over the Pats.

Broncos at Ravens (-5.5)

Bills at Vikings (-16.5)

  • Games like these are why some of the games I’m just making my pick, but advising against actually taking it. Even though it was virtually a lock that the Vikings would win, I would never recommend wagering $1,667 to win $100 on this game due to the ramifications of a loss like this.

49ers (+6) at Chiefs 

Colts (+6.5) at Eagles

Raiders at Dolphins (-3)

Giants (+6.5) at Texans

Packers at Redskins (+2.5)

Chargers at Rams (-7)

Bears at Cardinals (+5.5)

Cowboys (+1.5) at Seahawks

Patriots at Lions (+7)

Steelers (+1) at Buccaneers

2018 Straight-Up: 30-16-2, 2018 Vs. Spread: 26-21-1

We’re on to Week 3.

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Vikings (+7) at Rams

  •  Rams 38, Vikings 31
  •  1-0-1 to start the week. Vegas knew what was gonna happen.

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Lions at Cowboys (-3)

  • This is a sucker pick if I have ever seen one! As of Thursday night, 61% of the public is on Detroit after they beat the Patriots in prime time and the Cowboys had another poor road performance on national television. This has a very similar feeling (and spread) as the Cowboys home game against the Giants, which they pretty much dominated. I don’t know where my confidence is with the Cowboys going forward, but my confidence in them is high for this matchup.

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Buccaneers (+3) at Bears

  • This is as even of a matchup as it gets in my mind. A Bucs offense that has impressed against a Bears defense that has impressed, and a Bucs defense that has not impressed against a Bears offense that also has not impressed. While they were both in Tampa, the Bucs have dominated the Bears each of the last two seasons, and are nearly 3-0 against three of the NFL’s best from a year ago. This will be a good game, but the Bucs will pull off the upset.

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Dolphins at Patriots (-6.5)

  • While I still think they will make the playoffs, I’m buying the idea that the Patriots just are not the same team this year. That being said, this feels like an easy pick to me. The Patriots have dominated their division rivals at home for years, and I don’t see that changing with the hot Dolphins coming to town. This will not be a blowout, but the Pats will return home and win by 2 scores.

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Bengals at Falcons (-3.5)

  • I’ve been going back and forth with this one, but I concluded that the Falcons are too good of a team to go 1-2 on a three week home stretch. The Saints are getting a lot of praise after that win last week, but there’s no praise for the Falcons who probably should have won that game (if they didn’t choke like always)? I don’t like to play the “team x beat team y, and team y beat team z, so team x should beat team z” game, but I am in this case cause I think the Panthers and Falcons are similar teams, and the Panthers just easily won over the Bengals. With the spread moving in the Bengals direction, I’ll take the Falcons and the points.

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Bills at Packers (-9.5)

  • After performances the public did not expect out of both of these teams last week, the public is picking the Bills to cover this spread. While I think the Vikings are a better overall team, I can’t see a game like this happening to Aaron Rodgers, while it happening to Kirk Cousins did not stun me. I think the Bills keep it interesting but the Packers pull away in the second half to cover.

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Texans (+1) at Colts

  • The Colts have looked (a little but not much) better than the Texans and they are home, so they should win. That’s why I am taking Texans. The Texans are desperate for a win and have too much talent to be 0-4, while the Colts (and their coaches’ play calling) have looked uninspiring on offense and you have to question just how healthy Andrew Luck is. The Texans will edge out the Colts in this one.

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Jets (+7.5) at Jaguars 

  • How will both of these teams respond after disappointing performances a week ago? I think the Jets will look much better, especially with the extra rest. I think the Jags will struggle again on offense, but their defense will dominate Sam Darnold. This will be a low scoring game just like the Jags game against the Titans, but they will edge this one out, and the Jets will cover.

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Eagles at Titans (+3)

  • If not for their late game red zone defense, the defending Super Bowl champs would be 0-3. As for the Titans, they have won in upsets each of the last two weeks. I think the Eagles will eventually find their groove, but Carson Wentz is still getting his preseasons reps in and the Titans will stay hot and earn the upset at home.

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Browns at Raiders (-3)

  • The Browns have looked solid this year, but this is an easy pick for me. Everyone loves to bash the Raiders and Jon Gruden, but the truth is they could be 2-1, and in that one loss, they had the Rams number through the first half. A rookie QB going into the Black Hole sounds like a bad matchup, and (I might be wrong on the exact number) 10 straight #1 overall picks have lost in their first career start. The Raiders are my favorite pick of Week 4.

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Seahawks at Cardinals (+3) 

  • Sorry Bert, but I’m going against the Seahawks again. The Seahawks looked good last week at home, but it is as if the public (74% on Seattle as of Thursday night) has forgotten how they looked on the road the first two weeks, and how the Cardinals should have won that good against an impressive Bears team last week. In Josh Rosen’s first career start, the Cardinals will edge out the Seahawks in a low scoring game.

Saints (-3.5) at Giants

  • I normally don’t like taking the side the public is favoring, but what is Vegas seeing in this one? The Giants looked good last week, but has Vegas completely forgotten how bad they looked in Week 1 and 2? I think they will score some points on the Saints vulnerable defense, but the Saints offense looks amazing and will score a lot more. This is an easy pick for me as the Saints win and cover.

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49ers at Chargers (-10)

  • Obviously this spread is bigger than it would be if Jimmy G was playing, but it’s still not big enough. Does Vegas forget that the Niners were 1-10 before Jimmy G stepped in last year? I know almost any team is bad with a backup QB, but the Niners with a backup are arguably the worst in the NFL. This will be a blowout win for the Chargers.

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Ravens at Steelers (-3)

  • You can throw out the record books when these teams match up, but I think the Steelers is the easy choice. Their defense is definitely not very good, but their offense really has not missed Le’Veon Bell at all. The Ravens looked like a much different team on the road against the division rival Bengals in Week 2, and since most of us can agree the Steelers are better than Cincy, I think they have the advantage going into this one. The Steelers will win by a score, enough to cover.

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Chiefs at Broncos (+4.5)

  • As much as I love the Chiefs, they are gonna become the team the public is gonna hammer all year, and I will probably be picking against them most weeks. Maybe they will turn into the 2016 Cowboys, who would win and cover in every game the public was on their side. Anyway, prime time game in Denver, I think the Broncos are gonna fight hard against their division rivals. However, the Chiefs are looking way better than them, so they will win. The Broncos will fight and lose by a field goal, enough to cover.

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Be back in a week for Week 5 picks. Can Mahomes and the Chiefs keep up this crazy run?